A "beaten path" refers to a route that is frequently traveled. In markets, for years, this path led investors to be long both stocks and bonds in unison under the premise that duration exposure would mitigate losses during a sell-off in risk assets. In 2022, amidst sharply rising inflation, investors learned painful lessons that stock and bond prices can become highly correlated. For Dylan Grice, Co-founder of Calderwood Capital, the search for exposures that are off the beaten path has always been a natural pursuit.
Originally trained as an economist, Dylan realized early in his career that he was less geared towards making predictions. Instead, his focus is on evaluating the price of uncertainty, looking for opportunities to invest with hedge fund managers that emerge when the price of risk is favorable on either the long or short vol side of the ledger. In his search for cheap optionality, Dylan saw value in being short mortgages in 2021, a time during which interest rate volatility was exceedingly depressed by the forceful promises of the Fed, convinced that inflation was transitory.
He and team have also found opportunities to be well compensated to absorb risk, typically occurring when a market’s capacity to do so has been compromised. Such is the case in the reinsurance market now, where premiums post Hurricane Ida have increased substantially on the back of huge losses suffered. As catastrophe risk is fundamentally unique relative to market risk, adding exposure here is part of the low correlation set of strategies sought by Calderwood.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Dylan Grice. To learn more about Calderwood Capital, please visit www.calderwoodcapital.com.
