The assumption that you are a typical observer has given you enormous leverage over what the rest of the universe is like, without going out and looking at it. The point is that typicality is actually presumptuous. And if we can't assume that we're typical, then how do we make predictions? How do we use anthropic reasoning at all? Can we use it at all? So there are a couple of different solutions to this,. am and i want to talk about one solution that i don't like because it's a little tempting a but i really want, i want to disagree with it.
The 200th episode of Mindscape! Thanks to everyone for sticking around for this long. To celebrate, a solo episode discussing a set of issues naturally arising at the intersection of philosophy and physics: how to think about probabilities and expectations in a multiverse. Here I am more about explaining the issues than offering correct answers, although I try to do a bit of that as well.
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References:
- Guth, “Inflation and Eternal Inflation“
- Weinberg, “Living In the Multiverse“
- Susskind, “The Anthropic Landscape of String Theory“
- Carroll, Johnson, and Randall, “Dynamical Compactification from De Sitter Space“
- Sebens and Carroll, “Self-Locating Uncertainty and the Origin of Probability in Everettian Quantum Mechanics“
- Wald, “Asymptotic behavior of homogeneous cosmological models in the presence of a positive cosmological constant“
- Gibbons and Hawking, “Cosmological Event Horizons, Thermodynamics, and Particle Creation“
- Carroll and Chatwin-Davies, “Cosmic Equilibration: A Holographic No-Hair Theorem from the Generalized Second Law“
- Dyson, Kleban, and Susskind, “Disturbing Implications of a Cosmological Constant“
- Albrecht and Sorbo, “Can the Universe Afford Inflation?“
- Boddy, Carroll, and Pollack, “De Sitter Space Without Dynamical Quantum Fluctuations“
- Carroll, “Why Boltzmann Brains Are Bad“
- Aguirre, Carroll, and Johnson, “Out of Equilibrium: Understanding Cosmological Evolution to Lower-Entropy States“
- Carroll, “Beyond Falsifiabiliy: Normal Science in a Multiverse“
- Carter and McCrea, “The Anthropic Principle and its Implications for Biological Evolution“
- Leslie, “Doomsday Revisited“
- Gott, “Implications of the Copernican Principle for Our Future Prospects“
- Bostrom, Anthropic Bias
- Vilenkin, “The Principle of Mediocrity“
- Olum, “Conflict Between Anthropic Reasoning and Observation“
- Elga, “Self-Locating Belief and the Sleeping Beauty Problem“
- Lewis, “Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga“
- Hartle and Srednicki, “Are We Typical?“
- Hartle and Srednicki, “Science in a Very Large Universe“
- Neal, “Puzzles of Anthropic Reasoning Resolved Using Fully Non-Indexical Conditioning“
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