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215 | Barry Loewer on Physics, Counterfactuals, and the Macroworld
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas
Is There a Credence in Probability?
In the probability literature, there's usually a separation between two ways of thinking about probability. One is probability just in terms of degrees of credence; another is some feature of the world. These are not unrelated to each other because when the world has a certain feature, that it's the probability of the coin landing heads is a half, then this needs a little qualification. But basically, that tells you what rational credence, what rational degree of belief you should have in the next flip of the coin. Now, I don't think there are objective probabilities like that for things like scientific theories, like theories about dark matter. So I do think this notion of credence about theories is applying
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