Deconversion Trends in Iran

In this episode, we explore the surprising decline of religiosity in Iran, a country known for its religious theocratic state. Only 30.3% of Iranians now believe in life after death, with even fewer adhering to organized religion. We delve into the reasons behind this rapid deconversion, including the impact of state-enforced religion, the role of the internet, and shifts in cultural and family dynamics. We also examine Iran's plummeting fertility rates and the government's failed attempts to reverse this trend with various pronatalist policies. Join us as we discuss the broader implications of these changes for Iran and how they serve as a cautionary tale for other nations.

Malcolm Collins: [00:00:00] Life after death, only 30. 3 percent of people in Iran believe in life after death.. Heaven and hell, 30. 1%. When they asked religion, so to give you an idea of how much disgust they have for organized religion in the country, even if they identify as a Muslim, only 27.

8 percent believe in religion. More broadly. So, like, less than the percent that are Shia, even the state religion, enforcing There are

Simone Collins: people who answered on this survey, I am a Shia Muslim. I don't believe in religion. That happen?

Malcolm Collins: Yes. Maybe because they consider themselves ethnically Shia Muslim, or maybe Yeah, that makes sense.

Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

Malcolm Collins: yeah,

Simone Collins: yeah. They

Malcolm Collins: just have so much Which I guess goes to

Simone Collins: show, like, the extent to which making the religion the rule Kills the religion.

Malcolm Collins: an overwhelming majority, 90 percent describe themselves as hailing from religious families.

So this happened within a generation. They lost like when you're like, how quickly can we really lose kids that quickly isn't like a, oh, you do this and they control the [00:01:00] country for a few generations. You went from 90 percent coming from a religious family to 27. 8 percent saying that they identify as religious

Would you like to know more?

Malcolm Collins: Hello, Simone. I'm excited to be here with you today. Today's episode. We're going to be talking about two things. One is how Iran has rapidly been losing its rate of religiosity, mass deconversions We're talking like 40, only 40 percent of Iran's population identifies as Muslim now. Oh my gosh. Okay.

So, and this is in a religious theocratic state, then we're going to be talking about their crashing fertility rates. Quite all of the efforts that they've been trying to do to reverse this. Okay. And I want to couch all of this in this idea that people have that if only their religious group controlled the government of the country that they were in, That they would be able to do more to keep their religion alive and this in the United States.

This is an instinct. [00:02:00] I hear so frequently from Catholics and I point out that Catholic majority countries have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. They have some of the quickest deconversion rates in the world. And they're like, well, they're not enforcing their rules strictly enough. If they enforce them even more strictly, it would fix these problems.

And I'm like, well, great counter example is Iran. So Iran is enforcing them more strictly than any of the Catholic countries. And it appears to have an increased level and an increased rate of deconversion because of this. In fact, I will point out That it's not just, they're leaving Islam. Fewer people in Iran believe in God than in the United States.

Simone Collins: Oh my gosh. Okay, so they're not just converting out of the hard culture. They are just Nothing matters anymore. Nihilism.

Malcolm Collins: Oh yeah, and this is, this is, this is concentrated among younger populations as well, so it's only going to increase. And the problem here, and [00:03:00] people get through your head, if you take control of a government and try to force people to follow the tenets of your faith, it causes mass deconverts.

This is the core reason, this inclination to do this by Catholics is the core reason. Why their culture is completely falling apart right now in terms of the areas where it has power, right? Do not try to force your pornography bans. Do not try to force your bans on whatever, like, all of these weird, like, religious bans and everything like that.

And it's like, oh, if we can just ban all of this stuff, we can just ban gay people from getting married, if we can ban you know, it's like, this, Actually causes mass de converts.

Simone Collins: Yeah, I think forcing people, not the right thing, when, when, when leaving means death or social rejection, yes, but forcing it, leaving is catastrophic.

And Iran, if it's public,

Malcolm Collins: it can mean

Simone Collins: death. But you're just not following [00:04:00] the rules because there's a difference.

Malcolm Collins: What?

Simone Collins: There's a difference between deconversion and not following the rules.

Malcolm Collins: In Islam deconvert is considered like really, really bad. I'm pretty sure that you can, you're supposed to be killed if you're a deconvert by Sharia law.

It's not the same as being like a normal atheist or a normal non Muslim. I don't know. Why are people

Simone Collins: responding that they are no longer religious? Because

Malcolm Collins: that's how much they disrespect the space. The state we're going to go over. This is like 40, 000 people in this study. So, you know, not a small population sample either.

As a note here while it is not specifically illegal in Iran to deconvert the way Iranian law works is wherever something isn't specifically in the legal code, judges are allowed to refer to Sharia law. So it is functionally, both illegal and the death penalty to deconvert in Iran.

And I just think that what you're seeing here is a mass knowledge that, yeah, well, nobody really believes that anymore. And I think it's really easy to see why. And I want to get people in this [00:05:00] mindset before we go into the data, because it's going to be very data heavy. Okay. You're a kid, you grew up in a state, right?

Your parents don't feel the need to really in one, teach you how to resist people trying to deconvert you, teach you why your traditions are valuable, teach you why all of the restrictions of your traditions are valuable because the state does that, right? Like this is the thing that the state does.

This is the thing that your local mosque is going to do. This is the thing that you're, so then you get online because you have access to the internet. And you see all of these arguments against all of this, and all of this to you, it doesn't just feel silly, like, it feels bureaucratic to you. The reason why you wear the veil, the reason why you do the X, it's because it's the law of the government.

It's lost any sort of, like, religious magic. It is now just what you have to do. You don't not use porn because you [00:06:00] don't use porn. And that's a thing that you do for God and to be a good person. And you don't do it because it's the law. All right. And then when you're breaking that you're not breaking a religious rule, you're breaking a legal rule and it's much easier to start breaking.

Legal rules from a individual moral perspective than religious rules?

Simone Collins: Yeah, I think it's a lot like the, that study that they did with parents and preschool pickup times where they thought, oh, it really sucks that parents aren't picking their kids up from preschool on time, so let's just charge an extra fee per minute that they're late.

Yes. kid. And then what happens? Suddenly everyone is super late picking up their kids because now it's not a moral, I'm a shitty person for picking up my kid late kind of thing. It's a, Oh, there's a fee. I'll just, and yeah, you're right, I think making it statutory, making it unromantic, making it less about your self image and your morality and who [00:07:00] you are as a person and more about these are the rules and these are the costs of breaking them ruins it.

Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. So let's. Yeah. Yeah. And to give an idea of what this has had on their fertility rate, by the way, in 2022, Iran's deputy health minister warned that the country could fall into a quote unquote demographic, a black hole. It

Simone Collins: doesn't

Malcolm Collins: sound good. In 2024 projections indicated that Iran's population could potentially have by the end of the century with nearly half of the country classified as elderly by then.

Gosh, this is not good. Who's gonna be supporting them? They're gonna, they're gonna need to go full Logan's Run. Like, this is people who don't know Logan's Run is a world where they have to kill everyone after a certain age, because You cannot support a population where half of it is on social security.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: Right. So this is from a piece, a really interesting piece because they really struggled to get an idea of what Iranians [00:08:00] actually believed because the government says 99. 5 percent of the population is Muslim. And they're like, that doesn't seem right. And you can't exactly knock door to door.

And so they developed this sophisticated system for actually getting really you know, good data on what people if I ran sought through a survey mechanism That ended up recruiting 40, 000 people over the age of 19 and they used a number of demographic variables to assure that they were collecting a representative sample of the country I don't want to go into all of that.

Just know that like They are doing that. In terms of the big thing that has changed. It's been the growth of Internet with 70 percent of adults in the country now using at least one social media platform. So ideas that are They're completely permissive in society here And another thing I note here is we want to talk about why and what I want to investigate here is why at the end Why in israel are people saying so strong to the face when iran they're leaving the face, you know, if you have two semi theocratic government [00:09:00] Why does Islam suck so much when compared to Judaism at retaining membership?

And it appears it sucks even more than Catholicism when it's in control. It appears that Muslims really only work when they're a minority population in an environment or an incredibly poor population, poorer than Iran. Do

Simone Collins: you think they would do better in As a small group within a hostile environment.

I mean, that's part of why we think maybe I do. Yeah. I mean, when you feel like there's something to fight for when you feel like there's some pride in you being you because it's not the default. It's the exception. It's what makes you exceptional and special.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, 100%. But I think that some religions are like built for the fight. And when you don't have the fight, they fall apart. Islam requires an enemy to work. It, I won't say it's kind of like Nazis. But like sometimes the government is set up. where it's an [00:10:00] ideology that really requires a consistent battle in fight to stay healthy.

And the version of Islam that they are practicing, it worked really well when it was fighting against the Shah, when it was fighting against, you know, it doesn't work well when they control everything and it's only fighting outsiders who most people see as like a more conceptual threat than real threat.

It's not like Iran has been seriously attacked by outsiders in a very, very long time. In fact, The government might do well by letting outsiders attack it and have a war there, instead of, you know. Well,

Simone Collins: shouldn't they be able to leverage what's happening geopolitically in the area to do that? I guess not, because then we're acting as the aggressor in all cases now.

The US

Malcolm Collins: are going to attack you for decades, half a century at this point? People are like, yeah, sure. Like, you've been telling us the U. S. is a great Satan forever. Like, it really does not feel like they care that much. And Israel has done a very good job. While it attacks Iran's nuclear scientists [00:11:00] regularly it doesn't do much to terrorize the average person to make them feel like Israel is really their existential enemy.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: A great example of this is how religious Ireland was during the times of conflict, but after those were settled, how quickly religiosity began to drop pretty dramatically. So, I'm sorry for people who may not know for a long time, Ireland was basically a hot war between a Catholic and Protestant population. With the Catholics being the majority group that were being, In their mind, oppressed by a Protestant outsiders and a Protestant minority population.

So if you go back to 2006, 90% of Ireland identified as Catholic. , and now. , 2022, it's only 69%. , so you get a rapid drop and I have actually noticed this, that the forms of Catholicism that come out of a regions where they had consistent and persistent conflict with Protestants. Up until recently. Or typically [00:12:00] stronger. , then the forms of Catholicism, where the Catholics controlled everything. , this is generally Northern Europe, Catholicism versus Southern Europe Catholicism. And it's the same with forms of Protestantism. The forms of Protestantism, where they were in conflict with other religious groups and you needed to define yourself as Protestant against some alternative. ,

that's where you got stronger sort of channels of the Protestant tradition.

But again, this all seems intuitive to me as to why this would be the case. I mean, I'm just considering myself growing up. If I knew there was an ass give war between Protestants and Catholics in my area, I'm going to spend a lot of time figuring out what it means to be either a Catholic or a Protestant and invest in that. Eve.

I know that everyone in my area is just by default X. Well then if my teen rebellion phase, I'm going to rebel against X because that's just the authority. That's what everyone does.

And I will intergenerationally lose my faith really quickly.

[00:13:00] So in contrast with state propaganda that portray Iran as a Shia nation, only 32 percent explicitly identified as Shia. While 5 percent said they were Sunni Muslim, 3 percent Sufi Muslim, another 9 percent said they were atheists, along with 7 percent who prefer the label of spirituality, among other neglected religions.

8 percent said they were Zoroastrian, which we interpret as a reflection of Persian nationalism and a desire for an alternative to Islam rather than a strict adherence to the Zoroastrian faith. While 1. 5 percent said they were Christian. And some people know we consider Zoroastrianism as one of the true faiths.

I, I, I note here, like, this means that if you are looking at the atheist plus spiritualist plus zero Astrian faith there, it's almost as big as the Shia Muslim population.

Simone Collins: That is really crazy because you're, I always thought of Iran as Shia. That's

Malcolm Collins: crazy. Okay. Hold on, [00:14:00] it's bigger. Yeah, no, but actually if you include agnostics.

Let's see if I can do the math here. Yeah, it might be bigger than the Shiite population, which is crazy. Oh, oh, none?! None is huge! Sorry! Atheist is 8. 8 percent None is 22. 2%!

Simone Collins: Hohohohoho! Just, just

Malcolm Collins: none plus Atheist plus Agnostic is bigger than Shia.

Simone Collins: Oh,

Malcolm Collins: they, they

Simone Collins: are really losing God. Okay. That's, you think a lot of this is just a lack of hope for the future? It's hard for me to say, the only Iranian person I've met is that woman we met through Renaissance Weekend, who was super, like, Iran is great, I love Iran, I mean, she also was in the United States and not planning to go back to Iran, so I'm not exactly sure it was going on there.

Maybe she kind of came from an Iran that is gone now, but

Malcolm Collins: no, because those Iranians typically are like, not, I mean, they're not pro Iran in the way that you're thinking. So there's, like, modern Iranians who [00:15:00] are pro Iran, and I know this group because I have friends in this group, but I also have Persian friends.

Persians are the earlier immigrant group who we've joked about them in previous episodes. Culturally, they are very different from what you would think of as other Muslim populations. And they are a very secularized population. They are very consumerist, secularized, mercantile not like you typically would stereotype most Muslims.

And I think that Islam as a religion, You almost could argue it might have converted this region, but it was never really optimized for this cultural or ethnic group. And so as soon as they leave an environment that is you know, forcing it on them. They leave or or as soon as they have access to external technology, they leave the religion.

I just think that there isn't a strong harmony between the persian ethnicity and the islamic religion.

Speaker: Jahar, my friend, there are a lot of beautiful women out here today. Kareem, my friend, speak the truth. I do what I [00:16:00] can. Oh.

Speaker 2: Wow.

Speaker: Right? Blip. Shabloimps.

Speaker 5: They don't look Persian. Sure they do.

Speaker 3: Just

Speaker 5: have to gel the hair,

Speaker 3: put on a silk shirt, some gold chains, and tons of cologne.

Persian. Si. Wow!

Malcolm Collins: I almost feel like Actually, like, Zoroastrianism. Like, Zoroastrianism seems to work for Persians. And I'm talking about, like, a harmony between a, a religious system and an ethnic group. The, the audaciousness of all the fire stuff, and all the, like, come on!

It's, it's very Let's get my gold curtain rods.

Speaker 6: All they want is to make the place really nice. We're going to put down some lovely blue carpet and gold curtain rods. I knew it! I knew it!

Malcolm Collins: We often argue that Trump is, is, is, is a Persian. He's a, he's a Persian soul that somehow got caught in a white guy's body. Persian

Simone Collins: [00:17:00] aesthetics. Yeah. He's trans, trans Persian.

Malcolm Collins: If I walked into his house and I, and you showed me, you're like, if you show me like, okay.

Wait, he walked through his

Simone Collins: house and you were like, What is the

Malcolm Collins: ethnicity of the person who owns this abode? No, not even that. I mean, I walked into a Trump house, right? Okay. And there was a Persian guy there and there was a white guy there. And the white guy said, this is my house. A guy who looked like Trump said, this is my house.

I actually start laughing. I'd assume it was a joke. I'd be like, you, you cannot be serious. This is obviously this guy's house. But anyway as I said, Trump is our first Persian president. I really,

Simone Collins: yeah, I, I love, I've never seen this. I've seen plenty of biographies of Trump. I've never seen any analyses of the Trump interior decorating aesthetic, which is really a thing.

You know, it's, it is a distinct thing. He has a sense of style. It's consistent. His choice of why he's

Malcolm Collins: Persian too. His why's act like Persian girls who I've seen before. Yeah, but where,

Simone Collins: so where did this aesthetic come [00:18:00] from? Because he. I would not be surprised. I would not be surprised. You know, like a sort of classic, a Kennedy American, he grew

Malcolm Collins: up in New York adjacent to the real estate industry.

And okay, how do I say this without coming off as so the real estate industry, when contrasted with other industries, attracts a lot of people who like the type of industries that attract, let's say, mercantile people like car sales.

Simone Collins: I'll put this differently. If you look, for example, at real estate reality TV shows, it is known for ostentatiousness.

It is known for the over the top brand designer outfits and spending. And I guess there's a high correlation you're trying to say between the most ostentatious way that someone could show their wealth. And Persian aesthetics and there just happens to, okay, that is not what I'm

Malcolm Collins: saying.

Simone Collins: I am saying

Malcolm Collins: that [00:19:00] Persians would disproportionately be in industries that are low tech, high mercantilism, like real estate, car sales, stuff like that.

That's generally what I see. Rug sales is something they're known for, like, persians seem to do really good at low tech mercantile industries. And that is the industry that Donald Trump cut his teeth in. That is the industry he was raised in. I would not be surprised if he had a lot of Persian or Farsi or whatever you want to say, formative friends in his life, where he developed his aesthetics in both the women that he chose, great

Simone Collins: dinner parties.

And was like, where'd you get this table? And they were like, okay. Okay.

Malcolm Collins: That is my read of where, because I cannot, like, genuinely it is baffling to me. Like, you're like, oh, boarding school. If I was invited to a friend's house and it looked like this, you'd be making fun of them for weeks.

So I went to an AI and I first put in.

Wealthy wasp interior design. And this is what it looked [00:20:00] like. And then I put in wealthy, Persian, interior design, and here's what it looked like. Like even look at the accents on the chairs and stuff like that. They are exactly coded to Trump's taste. And I'd say that for me, just the real sin. , Trump's interior decorating and how I know that he did not grow up. , coding to WASP-y culture is there are no random pictures of boats or cottages. Or horses or overly expensive model boats.

And by the way I am joking here. , aye. Aye. As little as I get the golden. Curtains that you see in Persian interior design. I also do not get the pictures of boats and horses and random cottages. , that you see in waspy interior design, it makes why, why are you doing that? Did you, did you. Live on this boat?

No, you didn't. W why boat is it just like the safe thing to have a picture of?

Simone Collins: Yeah, I wonder what [00:21:00] the houses he grew up in looked like as well, because I doubt that they looked like the houses that he paints now.

But anyway, it's interesting.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. But anyway, the point here I'm making is that I'm pretty sure, or I would be genuinely surprised if this wasn't directly picked up from Persian. Because like, if you look at Persian women, like, you know, I, I, I, obviously I have a lot, I've had a lot of, in college, Farsi friends.

Because it was like a common thing in St. Andrews. It was a big group. And anyway, they're very big in D. C. They have a pretty big presence there. And anyway, so, their women are hyper sexualized often in terms of like, when you see it on the reality TV shows and stuff like that, when you see a Persian woman, right, you know, a very New Jersey fight, I guess I'd say, but like a little higher class than that, which really looks like the women who Donald Trump goes after.

And attractive. I'm not going to lie. Like they're, they're an attractive group. They're definitely not a, an issue there. But I think many people would be like, how can you say that his women are [00:22:00] Persian in aesthetics and not European when they are European women? And I'm like, okay, well they're Eastern European women.

And they one and two, they would not be seen as high class. For example, if you took your kids home from boarding school and they met women who looked like most of his wives again, they, they, you get made fun of, right? Like, if I took my friends to my house and I had a mom, like his, his wife.

Simone Collins: I'm actually thinking of that scene in Legally Blonde where Elle Woods is looking yearbook or something of, The, the kind of woman that her ex boyfriend is trying to date because he's trying to become like a WASPy politician. Yeah. It's just like, you know, more, more unfortunate looking women. And she's like dumpy looking

Malcolm Collins: and like, you know what that's saying.

Yeah, dumpy and

Simone Collins: unfortunate. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Malcolm Collins: You are, you're dating in these WASPy circles, which I learned to code switch to at a young age, right? Like growing up in one of these political families. That scene is very [00:23:00] accurate as to what you are told to look for, right? Not this ostentatious, ultra feminized version of a woman, right?

Simone Collins: Right, because that's who you have your affairs with, not marry. He keeps marrying the people he's supposed to be having affairs with! No, I think he's just like, I think he's a businessman. He's like, why can't I have my cake and eat it too? I'm going to marry the person I want to have the affair with and I'm going to have affairs with additional ones because why would I want to have one?

That's not all so hot, right? That's logical. And again, I,

Malcolm Collins: I pass. No, I'm just talking like cultural normativity. I refuse to believe that he got this from like wasp culture and in a boarding school. There was some other influence in this man's life. But anyway, to continue, it

Simone Collins: definitely did not come from wasp culture.

culture because there's no way that that could come from wasp culture. We can all agree that this didn't come from wasp, wasp culture. I mean, even like Benjamin Franklin who loves hanging around Versailles, right? Is, is, is, Inventing the [00:24:00] highly practical things like the Franklin stove, you know, he's you know, he's not out there making gilded devices He's making highly practical money saving devices.

It's not an american thing.

Malcolm Collins: Actually, if anyone in the comments has any ideas here, I would love to hear them. Where did Donald Trump pick up his Persian aesthetics?

Simone Collins: Anyway, where were we iran? Which of

Malcolm Collins: the following do you believe in we're going over some stats here. Okay,

Simone Collins: okay

Malcolm Collins: So 78. 3 believe in god compared to the U. S., which dipped to a new low of 81 percent recently. So, many more Americans believe in God. Life after death, only 30. 3 percent of people in Iran believe in life after death.

Less than 40 percent of people in Iran believe in life after death. That is wild. Like, out of all the religions, they're like, eh, there's probably no life after death. Heaven and hell, 30. 1%. Less than a third. Interesting, when they asked religion, so to give you an idea of how much [00:25:00] disgust they have for organized religion in the country, even if they identify as a Muslim, only 27.

8 percent believe in religion. More broadly. So, like, less than the percent that are Shia, even the state religion, enforcing There are

Simone Collins: people who answered on this survey, I am a Shia Muslim. I don't believe in religion. That happen?

Malcolm Collins: Yes. Maybe because they consider themselves ethnically Shia Muslim, or maybe Yeah, that makes sense.

Simone Collins: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

Malcolm Collins: yeah,

Simone Collins: yeah. They

Malcolm Collins: just have so much Which I guess goes to

Simone Collins: show, like, the extent to which making the religion the rule Kills the religion. Now, now people lose their religion because it's the rule. It's like, I'm, you know, I'm I'm a Democrat, but I don't believe in any democratic policies, you know, cause it's a technical thing.

And yeah, I get it. Yeah. But

Malcolm Collins: the point being is like, I tell people you don't want to enforce this porn ban and they're like, Oh, you're doing this for your own degenerate means. I'm like, look at the data. I'm trying to help you. You, you will lose. [00:26:00] Everything. If you do this stop trying to enforce your, you do not want to ban gay marriage.

No, no, no, this isn't about allying with gay people, even though I don't have a problem with gay people. I'm just saying and I wouldn't want my kids to be gay. Like, that's okay. Right? Like you can have, you can have a cultural expectation for your own family that doesn't apply to other people's families.

Okay. But when you attempt to apply to other people's families, that's when you lose your own family and your entire culture.

I would note here that this didn't use to be the case. This specifically emerged as the case because of the internet and the ease of finding alternate social environments. If you are feeling ostracized from your birth environment and the.

Aggressive memes, which spread online, which will attempt to actively deconvert your children.

But here's something I find really interesting here. Jen. So Jen is like ghosts or like genies 25. 7 percent believe in them. So only a little less than believe in religion.

So [00:27:00] you still get the folk tales and everything like that. It's the organized religion that dies first, not a people's willingness to believe in the supernatural when you would try to force these values on people. The coming of mankind, savior, 25. 6%. But yeah, now these numbers demonstrate that a general process of secularization known to encourage religious diversity is taking place in Iran, an overwhelming majority, 90 percent describe themselves as hailing from believing or practicing religious families.

So this happened within a generation. They lost like when you're like, how quickly can we really lose kids that quickly isn't like a, oh, you do this and they control the country for a few generations. You went from 90 percent coming from a religious family to 27. 8 percent saying that they identify as religious 47%.

Report losing religion in their lifetime and six percent said they changed from one religion to another in their lifetime With younger people reporting higher levels of irreligiosity and [00:28:00] conversions to christianity than older correspondents And here i'm putting a a graph on screen that talks about some of this and so you can see That this is a phenomenon that is primarily among young people.

I went from being religious to non religious and yeah What's interesting here is that it's not that much bigger in university educated people versus non university educated people in Iran. And I think that that's the danger of state control. Which is to say that for university educated people is 51 percent, non university educated is 45.

2 percent. Also here Urban versus rural, not as big as you'd think. Urban 48. 3 percent left religion. Rural, 41. 1 percent left religion. So if you're like, oh, well, if I live rurally, they'll be safe. 41. 1 percent rural left religion. And here you also see the trend that we see historically is that it's much more likely for men to leave religion than women.

49. 9 percent of men, 0. 1 percent away from 50 percent of men. left their religion if they were raised religious. Whereas [00:29:00] it was women, it was 43. 4%. Is that wild?

Simone Collins: This is just hard for me to believe. It, it's so much worse than I could have imagined. If you, if you had me at the beginning of this conversation, make some broad guesses as to how bad it is.

I wouldn't get to this level. I'd be like, well, maybe half, half are not religious.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, no, it's, it's, it's, it's shocking. And it shows how apocalyptic it is to attempt to enforce religion through a state. It does not work, especially in the age of the internet. Or it might be exclusively in the age of the internet.

I don't know, but you know, one of my ancestors, Oliver Cronwell learn this and it's one of the reasons why I'm so fastidiously against it is I feel that we need to intergenerationally learn from our mistakes and Yes, I mean, yes art should be sinful. Yes. Music should be sinful Yes, video games are sinful and if we had a state that banned all of these and everyone agreed with that And it worked to just ban them all [00:30:00] we'd have a more moral state and he tried that you know He tried to ban Art and music and singing and plays and all of that and Christmas and all of these sinful things, right?

But what we learned is that that causes an opposite effect to the fact you expect it to have and that we need to learn to live in harmony with sin and just not aggrandize it instead of Banning it, that appears to lead to very negative effects. But anyway, Asserd said they occasionally drink alcohol in a country that legally enforces temperance.

Wild. It's so hard to get alcohol in Muslim countries too. How do

Simone Collins: they, yeah, I wonder if it's just moonshine or something else. Some black market

Malcolm Collins: over 60 percent said they do not practice their obligatorily daily Muslim prayers. Synchronous was a 2020 state back poll in which 60 percent reported to not observing the fast during Ramadan.

The majority due to being quote unquote sick. But, but the state back poll [00:31:00] shows that this data is likely accurate, right? Because it's, it's matching numbers here. In comparison, a comprehensive survey conducted in 1974, before the Islamic Revolution, over 80 percent said they prayed and observed the fast.

The very last thing you want is for your religion to take over. To the integralists out there, you will fail, even harder than you're failing right now. Of course,

Simone Collins: for sure. We found a

Malcolm Collins: societal secularization was also linked to a critical view of religious governance system. 68 percent agreed that religious prescriptions should be excluded from legislation, even if they hold a parliamentary majority.

So okay, around 70 percent of people in Iran, presumably a theocracy, said that even if the religious side holds a majority, they should not be able to post religious laws.

You see how crazy that [00:32:00] is? But I also think this shows you the nature of the Persian people as well. Where I'm like, Persians in Islam, there never has been like a well matched ethnicity and religion here. And 72 percent opposed the law mandating all women wear a hijab, the Islamic veil. 72 percent opposed that.

This is what, 28 percent who are for this law, like nobody.

Simone Collins: Yeah. What's it going to take then for that to be reversed? I mean, obviously there were major protests about this and then nothing happened. Most

Malcolm Collins: government needs to be replaced and, and they're getting scared now they're getting scared because of Trump.

And a lot of people, they, they consider Trump like, because he's actually hard on them. He actually like and they've gotten to a state now where Peter Zeihan, you know, fervent anti Trumper. was doing a piece on Iran is seriously at risk of collapsing like their current government. If they can't figure out a way to do a

Simone Collins: deal

Malcolm Collins: with Trump.

Yeah. And they're panicking apparently about this.

Simone Collins: Well, they should be. I mean, China's also sort of preemptively, I think starting to [00:33:00] hurt. I mean, it's hurting from Trump's last policies. I've been somehow YouTube discovered in my algorithm that I'm interested in what's going on in China, and I'm just getting constant recommended videos about how the middle class can no longer support themselves, that people with designer bags are doing gig work on rented e bikes, and people aren't able to afford their rental properties anymore, they're going bankrupt and, you know, a lot of this is, is sagging demand due to a growing old population that just doesn't consume as much.

But a huge amount of this as well is that still China exports more than it imports, and they're going to have even more trouble with Trump's tariffs,

Malcolm Collins: so Yeah, a lot of countries that have been gaming the system are going to have a tough time of it with Trump because he actually enforces this s**t, and people are beginning to freak out in a lot of countries.

And could this lead to [00:34:00] government's changes? I mean, I hope I want the CCP to change. I want Iran's government to change. I think Iran actually from a disposition perspective has a, if you like pulled the average Iranian, you're going to get a country that would be an amazing ally. To either the United States or Israel.

Simone Collins: Right, so if Iran just had a bloodless revolution, and basically the will of the people, as we understand it, who knows if our understanding is accurate, was actually executed upon. And it became a more, we'll say, socially open Zoroastrian leaning, culturally

Malcolm Collins: I I I'd love a Zoroastrian theocratic state.

Simone Collins: But but not by rule, just by theme. Not by rule, yeah. And and they they became allies suddenly. Israel and the United States, they would thrive. Can it happen? No, nothing [00:35:00] ever works out that nicely. Well, what would have to happen for that to happen? I, I guess the entrenched bureaucracy, the entrenched leadership, they would all just have to be killed suddenly.

They would all have to suddenly die because you can't. Yeah, there's no way they're going to let go a grip of power. No, absolutely. There's no way they're going to change their

Malcolm Collins: policies. And there is no way, Simone, Simone, I mean, if we're talking logically here, right, it's not like there's some other country that would have a vested interest in all the leaders of Iran randomly dying on one day that has shown the capacity to achieve feats like that in the past.

That, that, that wouldn't happen, right? They're not all gonna suddenly get window cancer like in pager cancer. You know, I'm just saying stranger things have happened to the enemies of this particular country. Then, then randomly, oh, so weird. They all were dead [00:36:00] one day. And Zoroastrian Bob found himself in the capital.

What was that? Keep in mind the Zoroastrian population is only like, one third the size of the Shia population. And a Persian nationalist Zoroastrian Iranian regime, I think, would be very interesting. From a geo geopolitical perspective, because I think it would find a lot of common alliance with many of the, the pow But, but again, they're shrinking, so let's go into their fertility situation here, right?

Okay. Oh, but before we go into that, In terms of religious diversity, 43 percent said that no religion should have the right to proselytize in public. Oh, sorry, almost half of people in a theocratic dictatorship said that almost no one should be legally allowed to proselytize in public. Wait, what? And 41 percent believe that every religion should be able to proselytize in public.

So the group that thinks that only Muslims should be is what, like 5 percent there or something? No.

Simone Collins: [00:37:00] Yeah. Yeah, not great.

Malcolm Collins: So Iran implemented, like, very strict fertility restrictions in 1989. They implemented a bunch of anti natalist policy. Yeah, they're, they're

Simone Collins: a great case study in why it's extremely hard to reverse.

anti natalist policies after they've been heavily implemented. So for at least a decade, they basically like read the population bomb and were like, Oh my God, we've got to do something about this. And they did. And they were very effective. And now they're discovering you can't just turn that around.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah.

In context. So from 1968 to 1988 the country doubled its population from 27, 000, 000 to 55, 000, 000. And they were like, how are we going to keep feeding these people if we keep doubling like this? Right? Because again, population bomb. It all makes sense. And at the time, I don't believe people were being stupid and the specific measures that they put in place here.

I find pretty interesting. They had a family planning program reintroduction in 1989 where they that had been dismantled after the Islamic [00:38:00] Revolution, actually. So this is after the Islamic Revolution when all this stuff was put in place.

They built a two child family model. The government began promoting a two child family model and they slowed down a population group growth. They began to increase the The availability of contraceptives the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1980 issued a fatwa or religious edict that declared Islam permits the use of contraceptives, providing religious backing for family planning support.

They ran a media campaign. The government launched a media campaign encouraging women to limit their number of children and space out their pregnancies by three to four years to avoid pregnancy under 18 and over 35. So basically really limiting the number of kids they could have. Can you imagine limiting pregnancies at three?

You'd be so sad.

Simone Collins: Well, also it's just, it leads to poor family dynamics. If you have kids that are so far apart in age, it's so much better to feel like back to back. Even if you're having only two, you're better off back to back.

Malcolm Collins: [00:39:00] Well, I'm just glad that you're autistic and this is your special interest. So this led to a fertility crash.

So, in 1980, they had a genuinely unsustainable number of children, 6. 58 average children per, per woman. In 1988, it had fallen to 5. 5, by 1996, it had fallen to 2. 8, in 2000, it had fallen to 2. 1 and now it's at 1. 6. But by what was not counted here is by 2012 it had fallen to 1. 6. So, a long time ago, by 2012, like more than a decade ago, at this point, it had already fallen to this disastrous level of fertility.

And what's interesting about Iran is they were one of the first countries to recognize this.

And so they tried to reverse this. All right. So what did they start to do? They started to and I, I think that this is really interesting. They reversed the anti natalist policies, but they also, you know, in Iran, you get free land for families with three children or more.

Simone Collins: So like two acres and a mule, [00:40:00] but for having babies for

Malcolm Collins: house construction and childbearing and marriage loans adjusted for economic conditions.

So, So yeah, I've asked more about this freelance thing. Cause I'm like, wait, whoa, whoa, whoa. As of 2024, approximately 80, 000 families have taken advantage of this. So this is a widely implemented policy. They're going for it. In cities with under half a million people. Couples who have their third child are allocated land given half to the mother and half to the father.

So they're allocated land in the city for cities with over half a million people. People with over three children are given land in a nearby area or a smaller city or a new city.

Simone Collins: So maybe you could build a rental property on it. I guess what, why would you have

Malcolm Collins: a rental property in a city that hasn't been developed yet?

It's that seems kind of area. Well, I also understand you can't afford to give them land in the city that they. Yeah,

Simone Collins: but I mean, again, this isn't. It's not going to change a family's. Decision on having kids. That's not going to [00:41:00] boost fertility.

Malcolm Collins: As we have pointed out, you cannot get fertility up with handouts.

Yeah. It has to be religion. And that's what they lost, was faith. Because you tried to force it on them, rather than giving them a reason to believe. Which is what this channel is all about. The exact opposite approach if I ran. Okay. Healthcare support. They gave free insurance coverage to rural mothers with three or more children.

Increased the number of infertility treatment schindlers. 90 percent of insurance coverage for infertility treatments. in government centers. That's a great policy, by the way. Legal and social measures and nine months of maternity leave for window for women efforts to prevent illegal abortions, promoting easy marriages.

And they've done media campaigns and they've done education initiatives. And in 2021, they outlawed sterilization, they banned free distribution of contraceptives, they restricted access to abortion, and they mandated collection and sharing of [00:42:00] patients fertility and pregnancy histories. In 2023 to 2024, the Population Use Bill, partial penalties for abortion, criminalization of providing abortion services or related information discriminatory workplace practices favoring men, so now they're like actively discriminating against women, and this is what we tell people, and I'll find a way to make gender egalitarian cultures,

Stable.

They will not exist in the future. And we will see a rapid erosion of women's rights in our generation. The only and most feminist thing you can do is have kids. Lots, lots of kids. Not like two kids, like a reasonable number, like eight kids. Okay, if you're, really, if you're having less than five kids, can you call yourself a feminist anymore?

I don't think so. You're a grifter who is, who is writing on The petticoats of previous women who did the actually challenging stuff so that you could surf on it. Right? Now, these measures have significantly impacted women's reproductive rights. Anyway, [00:43:00] your thoughts, Simone,

Simone Collins: we need to remember when looking at printed list policies that there are. People have different definitions of perinatalism. Some people hear perinatalism and they think family friendly, and that's fine and valid. When we talk about perinatalism, we talk about that which increases birth rate. There are lots of policies that we would love, personally, that are very family friendly, I would love to be given free land for each kid we have.

I would love to be given tax breaks and handouts and free childcare and all sorts of benefits. But it, that isn't going to increase birth rates. And I think that that's a really important thing is, is just because something is family friendly doesn't mean that it will make families bigger or help families become bigger.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah. Well, I think that, that honestly, the only solution is culture and religion. But that is not done through forcing your religion on people. People who think, Oh, if we just forced harder, if we just pushed harder, it's like, no, it's the exact opposite effect, [00:44:00] which you need to do. Is you need to, as your religion has done historically, like I mentioned Catholics here, right?

Like Catholics are like, but our religion never updates. And I'm like, well, this life begins at conception thing is something that you started about 200 years ago as Pope Pius IX. It was not something your historic thinkers thought and people are like nitpicking. They're like, well, they were definitely anti abortion, even if they thought life began at conception or they weren't sure about that.

I'm like, yeah, but it wasn't a hard policy. This is a new thing. And it was created if you look at the early thinkers because somebody, you know, was telling me they're like, well, you know, while they were anti abortion, but they thought these dates. And I was like, okay, if you told Thomas Aquinas or Augustus of Hippo There's this technology now called IVF.

And if you don't use it, children are not going to exist. And parents who want children, if you understood the way that they viewed fertility and insolvent, you obviously they'd be pro anything that increases the number of children that are coming into the world, especially if you're denying children that a family intended to have, but wasn't able to have because you denied them technology like this.

But the point I'm [00:45:00] making here is that so many of these policies where people are like, oh, I can just push this on people and it will work. It doesn't work. And so, the alternative is to work on continuing to evolve and update your religious traditions to one, resist the challenges of our time, but also to harmonize those reality as we understand it.

And unfortunately, a lot of religions that were, I say, predicated on the average believer not having access to modern information about, like, Earth isn't the center of the solar system. Earth isn't the center of the solar system isn't the center of the universe. You know, they, they, they worked because the average person didn't know that stuff.

And then as the average person learned more and more and more people begin to move away from this and we can do a separate episode on the mass conversions away from Islam that we're beginning to see where if we look at religions that are like uniquely harmed by access to information, people Islam, unfortunately, is one of the [00:46:00] top.

Unfortunately, I'm saying, I don't know, like, maybe not unfortunately, but Islam unfortunately, just doesn't harmonize very well with our current understanding of reality, and I don't think that that's because the text of Islam doesn't. As we have pointed out from a lot of the text of Islam stuff we've gone over, the text of Islam is very different from what Your average Muslim religious leader right now is trying to enforce on the Muslim population to get them to believe the text says as we pointed out, the text is pretty clear that Islam is a religion is only meant for Arabs.

It is only meant for people who have the Arab language. I, it says things like, I put this religion down for you in Arabic because that's the language you, you speak. You being the people who this religion is for, it's pretty clear it was meant to live alongside other true religions like Christianity and Judaism, not antagonistic to them.

But it, it has morphed from that into something that is [00:47:00] not Islam, into some alternate b*****d religion that some of the religious leaders push and this is leading to its fragility. And so I'm not saying that like Islam needs to go, but like the, the, the, the iteration of Islam that is commonly practiced today is obviously not going to survive because it's not what the texts say, and it doesn't harmonize well with reality as like the facts or the science understands it.

And I think what's interesting here is you're seeing even a faster conversion away from Islam than you are from other. Religious traditions, which struggle with this harmonization as well, like, Mormonism, for example struggles with. History. But the, the, the, the, the thing is, is at least with Mormons, you have two real advantages, right?

One is as Mormons can iteratively update their religion and it's like a weirdly futurist religion in many ways. They're like, yeah, well, if the church doesn't say this now, they'll be saying it in 10 years. So I'll just believe it now. I mean, that's what history

Simone Collins: has always been a creative pursuit. [00:48:00] It's just that right now, it's way too easy to fact check and it hasn't been.

Throughout most of human history.

Malcolm Collins: Yeah, and it is wholesome, in a way. What I'd say is, a lot of people will castigate Mormons for, Oh, you have all these bans on X, Y, and Z. And yeah, I don't agree with a lot of the Mormon bans, right? Like, the ban on masturbation is buffoonery. But it's generally a wholesome movement, right?

And I think that a lot of Muslims do not feel this way. They feel that people are trying to force them to live this way in a really aggressive and authoritarian and violent fashion. And so there is more to be gained from exploring and subverting these religious beliefs. Which I think is, Yeah, it's, it's not gonna work.

It's not gonna work. And it's, it's likely going to lead to, now do I think that we're going to see like a massive Muslim fertility crash? No, but I think that we will see a, a unique [00:49:00] fertility crash around Muslims who are open to challenging authority, who are educated, who are economically productive and this leads to a lot of challenges.

But as we've seen, even in Iran, apparently there's been a huge growth in the Christian community. And the Zoroastrian community, which I even prefer more because I think that that harmonizes more with their ethnic background. As people know, I generally think you shouldn't just choose a religion that hasn't been in your people for centuries.

But anyway, what are your thoughts?

Simone Collins: I largely agree with you. I, it's just, I'm, I'm just shocked by what has happened in Iran. I, I hope so. That this is signs of it that a sea change will come and that Iran is about to see a new golden age because it is clear that where they are from a demographic standpoint and geopolitically and now religiously that they are not in a sustainable position.

That means that something is fundamentally going to change quite [00:50:00] profoundly. And that's cool. So hopefully things will change for the better. And I'm just going to try to be optimistic about this.

Malcolm Collins: I love you, Simone.

Simone Collins: I love you too.

Malcolm Collins: What are we doing for dinner tonight? A pasta with pesto.

Simone Collins: Pasta with pesto.

I'm also going to make some karai spiced fried chicken for you, but in the air fryer.

That's a right.

Malcolm Collins: Karai? Spiced? Is it pre cooked? Where is it from?

Simone Collins: Breaded. Breaded and fried. It's from you. Oh yes. That sounds good. You've had it before and you like it and I did both oven and air fryer and you preferred air fryer. So that's what I'm going to do.

Malcolm Collins: You are a lovely wife.

Simone Collins: You are a lovely husband and I love you so much. And I love our kids and they're little nerds. Oh actually, can't,

Malcolm Collins: should, should I try to deep fry things [00:51:00] occasionally again?

Simone Collins: It's such a waste of oil, and it, it messes up the whole shelf. Cause it just covers everything in oil. Maybe we can wait just a little.

Until the kids like, like it too. You know, because then, then we have the whole family getting in on it.

Malcolm Collins: Looks like Injustify with the kids, okay. Yeah, and those,

Simone Collins: those two string fries that you used to make, you know, yeah, I mean, there was a world, yeah, there's a world in which this needs to happen, but. The world isn't here yet because we have three children who hate eating.

Oh, right. I'll

Malcolm Collins: make more

Simone Collins: children, Simone. Dang. You don't have to twist my wrist on this. Twist your arm. I will not. I will just go ahead and do it. You know?

Malcolm Collins: Oh, you'll just keep producing them? Just keep.

Simone Collins: Well, hopefully we'll see. I'm so nervous about January. Hopefully. You

Malcolm Collins: do the betting poll in one of the betting sites about us.

There are two.

Simone Collins: Manifold has two different markets. Regarding how many kids we're going to have by [00:52:00] what year I bet on both. Of course, the big question is, When will I physically be unable to have more kids? This is not a mentally thing, so I think people should be making bets based on their knowledge of where I am from a uterine strength standpoint, you know?

Malcolm Collins: They're, they're, they're betting here when we say this is her autistic special interest. I'm being serious here. They are betting here on the autistic man, not having more trains in a few years. They are, they're saying he has 50 trains. He couldn't possibly need more. The question then is

Simone Collins: how financially constrained will he be?

How much, you know, when, who will he, and I've never, I don't think it's a question of space. The autistic man finds space. So

Malcolm Collins: he couldn't possibly spit more trains and trains find a way

Simone Collins: trains find a way

Malcolm Collins: this bedroom will be the train room next, you know, he'll sleep in the closet.

Simone Collins: Yeah.

Malcolm Collins: There was a [00:53:00] time when we did sleep in the closet in one of our houses because it was just like more reasonable than the bedroom.

Simone Collins: I felt uncomfortable sleeping in that large of a bedroom and the closet was so cozy. It's perfect. It was so, it was amazing.

Plus Texas has huge closets. We like, we do not have closets here. This is insane. Do we? We have two closets. No, you have closets. You have closets.

Malcolm Collins: The only room in the house was closets.

Simone Collins: That's crazy.

Malcolm Collins: But why? What's the point? You know, you only need one outfit. Why would you have a closet? Well, it

Simone Collins: is interesting that the house is built in the 1700s, didn't have running water.

So there, there were no bathrooms and then they didn't have, I guess a lot of stuff. So where would there would be no need for closets and now people are like, literally, I imagine, imagine the, the, the, the pilgrims confusion upon hearing that there's entire history, [00:54:00] sorry, an entire industry dedicated to storage units.

And you have to explain to you know, silence do good that. There are people of all economic levels who have so much stuff that they pay a monthly rent. To, to hold the stuff that they don't want to let go of.

Malcolm Collins: So we in one of our episodes, the one title people used to like their parents, which I think is one of our better episodes, check it out if you haven't where I go over the diaries of my great, great grandfather and he does an inventory in it of everything they own and it is they have a, a shack, they have an outhouse, and the thing he was really proud of or thought of as very expensive was a, a flywheel for spinning the fabric or something.

A flywheel or

Simone Collins: a spinning wheel?

Malcolm Collins: A spinning wheel, yes. A loom? Do they have

Simone Collins: a loom or a spinning wheel?

Malcolm Collins: No, no, no, not a loom, a spinning wheel only.

Simone Collins: Okay.

Malcolm Collins: The rest they had to do themselves. And that was, [00:55:00] that was their assets. And nothing else. They had pigs, which he got mad at him for. Well,

Simone Collins: 3D printers of their age.

I mean, that was pretty cool. We don't have a 3D printer. Right, they actually

Malcolm Collins: were. It's like, Oh, I don't need to go to the store to get thread. I can just make it. Really cool. Yes. That's something to be proud of. Yeah, so, I, I get, you're right, they were the 3D printers, we don't think about that. Yeah.

Spinning wheels were the 3D printers of their age. Oh, I made a component that I can use to make other things. Yeah. But, just the, the, the, the, you'd have like a list of property. I have a spinning wheel, what, what else? Well, we dug a hole out there and we have like a little shack around it and they're like, what else?

And I've got a place where we all sleep together in the same room right there. And it's like, what else? It's like, well, my dad sold the pigs a bit early last year. I love it. His, his huge rant about his dad selling the pigs to

Simone Collins: very

Malcolm Collins: much the Bitcoin of his generation. Yeah. He

Simone Collins: sold early. Oh my [00:56:00] gosh.

That's like, my dad had some Bitcoin. At least I have guide in hand

Malcolm Collins: with the swine market. Yeah.

Love you to death.

Simone Collins: I love you too. I'll go start dinner.

Malcolm Collins: You're so wonderful. .

Speaker 7: He strides through hallways decked in gold, so bright. Like a sultan's palace glowing day and night. Marble pillars glimmer, echoing his name. A Persian king or president, one and the same. Shimmering drapes, flush rugs under each foot. A A fortress of bling that no one can refute. Gold leaf on the ceiling, mirrors everywhere.

He's bold, he's brash, who else [00:57:00] would even dare? Where are the paintings of boats, of horses so rare? Where are random cottages in frames, why aren't they there? And where are the model ships, decked out in their coats? Where We're asking our first Persian friends, show us those votes.

He bedazzles ballrooms, each corner ornate. Like something out of ancient lore, or so we state. Halls paved in splendor, shining under the light. Surprise, surprise, he's got It's quite a sight.

He claims he's classy with flair unmatched. A thousand chandeliers perfectly dispatched. Grand Tourette's, big fountains, exotic [00:58:00] mystique. All hail our Persian prez. So lavish, unique. Where are the paintings of boats? Of horses so rare? Random cottages in frames, why aren't they there? And where are the model ships?

Decked out in their coats? We're asking our first Persian friends. Show us! Those boats,

every corner gilded, every surface gleams like shy era fantasies, fresh out of dreams. Marble upon marble, a treasure trove of hue. Yes, it's gaudy, but hey, it's trumped through and through. Where are the paintings of boats, of horses so rare, random cottages in frames, why And where the model [00:59:00] ships decked out in their coats Our gilded Persian president,

please bring on those boats