Haibin Zhu joins Nora Szentivanyi to discuss China’s economic and policy outlook amid mounting downside risks to growth. Following the latest set of disappointing activity data we lowered our full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 4.6%––below the government’s target of 5%––and continue to see a further slowdown to 4% in 2025. When activity has faltered in the past authorities tended to increase policy support to keep GDP growth close to the target range. This is becoming increasingly challenging, progressively requiring more policy stimulus to generate the same growth impact. Deflationary pressures have become entrenched amid lopsided policy support that has favored production over consumption, while the time inconsistency of China’s housing strategy has prolonged the most severe downturn in three decades.
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