
OPPORTUNITIES IN COMEUPPANCE
Grant’s Current Yield Podcast
Introduction
An in-depth conversation with financial professional Dan Zorn about the current market state, focusing on credit, special situations, and the concept of an 'everything bubble'. Insights are shared on global capital costs, asset ownership, potential outcomes, and strategies for normalization by governments and monetary authorities.
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Speaker 2
This is current Neil Grant's interest rate observer of the air and an IMG grant. And with me as always is the great Deputy Editor of Grant's Evan Lorenz and Henry French at the control panel. And with us today is Dan Zorn, who is the Chief Executive Officer and the Chief Investment Officer of a firm that does nothing except look for opportunities in unconstrained searches for opportunities in the world, having to do principally with special situations and in credit. And Dan is a man of some educational parts. He's a Penn Fellow, University of Pennsylvania, engineering student, computer science and got MBA from Harvard. And he has been serving, he once served on the board of trustees of Barnard College of Columbia University and Trustee of the University of Brookings Institution, a senior trustee, mind you. So he is, as I say, a formidable being. And Dan, welcome, welcome to Current Yield. I have a question. I've been dying to ask you since your fine appearance at a March event that responded concerning private equity, private credit, sorry. Well, they're not unrelated. And here Dan is the money quote. I can assure you, we quote you saying, that there is a tsunami of terrible, terrible businesses and assets that need to be rationalized. And the total addressable market, if you think of it this way, is bigger than it's ever been. And growing, period close quote. Does this presuppose the existence of an everything bubble and with the implication there is an everything come up with the suitably immense opportunities awaiting us?
Speaker 3
It does.
Speaker 1
It does, Jim. Ultimately, there is no doubt about the everything bubble because QE2 starting in 2012 made it so. The question then is, will it, will there be the compass and in what timeframe will that come up, it's occur? On the first question, I would argue that there has to be because when you engage in the level of physical proficiency that most of the world's significant governments have done since 2020 and effectively incinerate fiat currency, your ability to reduce the compensation you pay investors to expose themselves to your currency is materially reduced. And therefore, if you are Jerome Powell or Stan Ligard and others, you simply cannot lower that price material. Therefore, you effectively raise the cost of capital around the world, which is very damaging to those owning assets that were accumulated during that very everything bubble that many of those same people created through QE2. And so in the absence of, for instance, a sudden, you know, a tremendous belt tightening whereby, for instance, the United States government decides that only a quarter of its 200 global military bases are necessary, that it doesn't have to be the policeman of the world, that it considers Social Security to be life expectancy plus three, like it was when a program was started, there is no other way to go. And so then the question is over what timeframe does that occur? And for that answer, I think you have to look to what's in the best interest of the people who make those decisions, which are the folks in the government bureaucrats and the monetary authorities. And what's in their best interest is, in the first case, is to mortgage the future to buy votes today. And what's in the second case is push the problem into the hands of the next person who occupies their seat. And so that means a managed, slow rolling process of bubble reducing that could take, you know, several years and will feature a combination of elevated rates. And Dan, bring it back to people who are pushing off the problems into the
Speaker 3
future.
With special guest Dan Zwirn, CEO and CIO of Arena Investors.