India's place in the economic cycle

In this landmark episode of Paisa Vaisa, Anupam Gupta reunites with the leadership team at White Oak Capital—Founder Prashant Khemka and CEO Aashish Somaiya—to dissect the radical transformation of the Indian market over the last three years. As the Nifty has surged from 18,000 to 26,000 and SIP inflows have hit a staggering ₹30,000 crores per month, we explore whether the Indian retail investor has finally matured or if we are simply chasing the latest momentum in gold and silver.

Prashant Khemka provides a rare global perspective, drawing parallels between India’s current economic cycle and the "middle-income traps" that have historically hindered countries like Brazil. He breaks down why a realistic 11% pre-tax return is the "gold standard" for the next two decades and why the "alpha potential" in India remains among the richest in the world for bottom-up investors.

Aashish Somaiya addresses the "dark side" of social media and the rise of finfluencers, explaining why it is the industry's moral duty to speak to the younger generation in relatable terms. Together, they reveal the "Chemistry of Investing"—a framework showing how strategic equity allocation can actually improve risk-adjusted returns without the volatility most investors fear. Whether you are worried about the "exit" of private equity via IPOs or wondering how to stay disciplined when the market goes nowhere, this masterclass provides the roadmap for your 20-year wealth creation journey


TAKEAWAYS 
-Realistic Expectations: Investors should aim for roughly 11% pre-tax returns (9% post-tax) over a 20-year horizon based on GDP growth and inflation .
- The Behavioral Gap: The biggest threat to wealth isn't fund fees; it’s the retail habit of getting in and out of the market at the wrong time.
- Retail Maturity: Despite low recent returns, SIP flows remain strong at ₹30,000 Cr/month, signaling a structural shift in how Indians save.
- Middle-Income Trap: India is currently at an early stage compared to Korea or Taiwan; the risk of a "trap" usually stems from extreme socialist policies .
- IPOs are Vital: IPOs are not just "exits" for VCs; they are a funding mechanism for businesses that eventually create jobs and grow the economy.
- Alpha Potential: India remains one of the richest markets for alpha globally, especially for managers using a bottom-up research approach.




From decoding your personal finances to demystifying business models, Paisa Vaisa delivers candid, insightful, and jargon-free conversations.

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