Using small experiments to reduce uncertainty

Ever have difficulty deciding which task to do first?
Dive in as hosts Jeremy Nagel and Joey Corea unpack how to prioritise without overthinking. They explore practical frameworks like RICE, RICE, UICEs and FUICE experiment with ways to reduce uncertainty, debate urgency versus importance, and share how AI, accountability, and small experiments can help you focus on what actually matters.

Whether you’re managing a product roadmap or your personal backlog, this episode offers clear, usable tools for getting unstuck — minus the productivity fluff.

Key Ideas & Takeaways :

1. Why Prioritisation Systems Matter

Jeremy opens the discussion by reflecting on how work and side projects often get lost in endless to-do lists. He explains why RICE (Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort) is valuable — it forces you to quantify what feels vague. Joey agrees that structure helps prevent “fake productivity,” but warns that rigid scoring systems can become procrastination in disguise.

2. RICE Explained & Its Limits

Jeremy walks through each RICE element — Reach, Impact, Confidence, Effort — noting it was originally built for product teams.
He highlights its biggest flaw for personal work: “Reach” isn’t always meaningful for individual priorities. Joey adds that RICE works best when there’s data (e.g., users reached, tasks completed), but breaks down when you’re making creative or exploratory decisions.

3. Introducing UIs (Urgency–Impact–Confidence / Effort)

Jeremy shares his personal adaptation: swap “Reach” for “Urgency.”
He keeps the multiplicative model but applies logarithmic effort tiers (2 min, 1 hour, 1 day, etc.) to simplify scoring.
Joey likes the tweak but asks whether urgency might bias people toward reactive work — the kind that feels satisfying but doesn’t move long-term goals forward.

4. Urgency vs Importance
Both hosts explore Eisenhower’s “urgent vs important” distinction.
Jeremy says urgency is okay if you’re honest about why something matters now. Joey pushes back — too much urgency creates cognitive noise. They agree that systems must leave space for non-urgent creative work, otherwise everything becomes firefighting.

5. Reducing Uncertainty with Small Experiments
Jeremy notes that many “low confidence” tasks stay stuck on the list forever. His fix: run tiny experiments first to gather evidence before scoring.
Joey calls this “agile for real life” — you iterate instead of agonising. The point: reduce uncertainty, not eliminate it.

6. Adding the ‘Fun’ or Enjoyment Factor (FUI)
Joey introduces the idea of adding Fun, Urgency, and Impact to his own prioritisation sheet.
He argues enjoyment fuels follow-through, so why not make it explicit?
Jeremy agrees intrinsic motivation matters but notes that “fun” is often self-sorting — you’ll naturally do enjoyable tasks first anyway.

7. Managing Reading Lists & Content Intake
Joey confesses his massive backlog of saved articles and newsletters.
He suggests a scoring system: relevance + excitement – time cost.
Jeremy shares his “three-month purge” rule — if he hasn’t read it in that window, it goes. They both mention using Pocket, Notion, and mind-maps to curate rather than hoard.

8. Using AI & LLMs Wisely

Jeremy warns about overreliance on LLMs. They can amplify bias or atrophy skills if you stop verifying outputs.
Joey agrees but sees promise in pair-programming and summarisation workflows.
They discuss junior roles disappearing due to AI’s speed, and how creative generalists who can judge and adapt outputs will gain value.

9. Accountability & Commitment Contracts

Jeremy explains how he uses financial penalties or “anti-charity” pledges to enforce deadlines.
Joey jokes that fear of embarrassment works just as well.
They debate the crowding-out problem — too much external punishment can kill intrinsic motivation — and conclude that human accountability still beats automation.

10. Joey’s Prioritisation Mind Map
Joey walks listeners through his visual map connecting long-term goals to daily habits.
Jeremy appreciates how it translates fuzzy ambitions into nodes and branches.
Both agree visuals help reveal “hidden dependencies” that linear lists can’t show.

11. Satisficing vs Maximising Decisions

Jeremy defines “satisficing” — choosing something that’s good enough to move forward.
Joey adds that it’s key for ADHD or perfectionist brains: stop optimising everything and pick a workable next step.
This segues into how digital gardens or evolving notes can be better than “final” outputs.

12. Digital Gardening & Reflective Workflows

They close by talking about revisiting past ideas instead of starting fresh each time.
Joey compares it to tending a garden — ideas grow if you give them attention.
Jeremy says that’s the real goal of systems: to create reuse, not just completion.

Connect with Jeremy:

LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/nageljeremy

Email: jeremy@focusbear.io

Connect with Joey:

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeycorea/

Newsletter: https://thepluckyjester.com/newsletter/

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