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#50 Ta(l)king Risks & Embracing Uncertainty, with David Spiegelhalter

Learning Bayesian Statistics

CHAPTER

How to Communicate Statistics Without Introducing Probability Theory

i think that all probabilities are assessed. Theyare not really estimated, because they don't exist out there in the external world. Probabilities are constructed on the basis of arguments of belief, of evidence. There is no true underlying number there and that we are attempting to discover. One of the best ways to describe probalistic judgments is through a frequency metaphor,. which is what it means for a hundred people orbut even at an individual level - how many of them do you expect something to happen?

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