Prediction Markets: Promise and Peril

In this episode, Chuck Todd explores the growing bipartisan momentum to rein in Big Tech, noting that while social media’s unintended consequences have already eroded truth and public trust, AI could amplify those failures without strong guardrails. He breaks down why Americans overwhelmingly support protecting kids from tech harms—and why a public revolt is inevitable once people feel they’ve lost control. Chuck also looks at how massive AI investment is masking broader economic weakness before turning to Donald Trump’s botched economic message in Pennsylvania, a “let them eat cake” tone that echoes the same political trap Biden once fell into. With surprising Democratic wins in Miami and Georgia and a demoralizing trend inside the GOP base, the political landscape is shifting fast, especially as ACA subsidies near expiration and no healthcare compromise is in sight. Chuck then pivots to the rise of prediction markets—how they move on insider information, how they could be manipulated by political actors, and why the “casinofication” of news threatens to reduce all political coverage to a risky, easily gamed horse race.

Then, journalist and founder of MAMA (Mothers Against Media Addiction), Julie Scelfo, joins  Chuck ToddCast for a wide-ranging conversation on one of the most urgent issues facing American families: the collapse of trust in media, the rise of unregulated tech, and its profound impact on children’s mental health. Scelfo explains how the explosion of social media and smartphones—coupled with virtually nonexistent regulation—has left kids exposed to harmful algorithms, addictive design, and misinformation at formative ages. With both the left and right now pushing to get smartphones out of classrooms, she argues that we’re long past due for meaningful guardrails, especially as Big Tech’s lobbying power grows and federal leaders threaten to block states from regulating AI. Chuck and Julie compare today’s fight with Big Tech to the battle against Big Tobacco, explore why recommendation systems effectively make platforms publishers, and discuss the growing bipartisan appetite for banning iPads in schools and returning to books.

They also dig into MAMA’s mission to protect children in a digital world—emphasizing that kids under two should not be exposed to screens, that early childhood development depends on real-world interaction, and that “tech nannies” have emerged because childcare is unaffordable. Scelfo calls for mandatory data transparency from tech companies, stronger child-safety legislation in the states, and a culture shift that prioritizes healthy offline development over the race to dominate AI. With future jobs uncertain and social skills declining, she argues that society must resist sacrificing sensible regulation in the name of innovation—and recognize that too much time online isn’t just unhealthy, it’s shaping a generation.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and previews the upcoming college football slate.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

03:00 There is bipartisan support for pushing back on tech

05:00 AI regulation to protect kids has massive support

06:15 The public will revolt over tech when they feel they lose control

08:00 Social media came with unintended consequences, AI could be similar

08:45 Social media has destroyed truth

09:30 AI needs guardrails that have been missing from social media

10:45 AI investment is masking a recession for much of the country

12:30 Trump botches economic message at PA rally

13:15 Trump has a tone deaf, let them eat cake mindset

14:45 The Trump WH walking into the same trap Biden did on economy

15:30 Elections in Miami and Georgia showed GOP is in real trouble

17:30 First time a Democrat won Miami mayor in nearly 30 years

18:15 Democratic voters are fired up & more reliable

19:45 The base of the Republican party is becoming demoralized

21:00 ACA credits set to expire, no compromise healthcare deal yet

22:15 Question for audience: Do you follow and participate in prediction markets?

24:00 Prediction markets move when they get insider info

25:45 Prediction markets seemed to know fed interest rate cut was coming

27:00 Is it wise to allow people to bet on basically everything?

28:45 Gambling is highly regulated, prediction markets are not

29:30 Certain people will know outcomes in advance and can game the system

30:45 Trump allies could game the system on predictions of his actions

32:15 Predictions that can be manipulated should be outlawed

34:00 Prediction markets could make all political coverage “horse race” style

35:15 The “casinofication” of news comes with risks

40:45 Julie Scelfo joins the Chuck ToddCast

43:45 Erosion of trust in media & news is a massive problem

44:45 Mental health decline in youth correlated with rise of social media

45:45 Both left & right want to get smartphones out of classrooms

46:30 Lack of social media regulation leaves kids vulnerable

47:45 Regulation is difficult when big tech has unlimited money to lobby

49:45 Threats from Congress & Trump to prevent states from regulating AI

51:15 Executive order from Trump may be last gasp to avoid AI regulation

53:15 AI has been positive for shareholders & owners, not for the public

54:30 What lessons can be learned from the fight against big tobacco?

57:00 Recommendation algorithms turn platforms into publishers

58:30 Advertiser supported speech is different than first amendment speech

59:15 Broadcast networks are liable for misleading ads, social platforms aren’t

1:00:45 Momentum building to ban ipads in schools and make kids use books

1:02:15 MAMA’s mission and goals

1:03:45 Children under 2 shouldn’t be exposed to screens for entertainment

1:06:15 Kids know how to find information, but must be taught to filter it

1:07:15 Most educational building blocks are built during early childhood

1:08:00 We can’t sacrifice sensible regulation in order to win AI race

1:09:15 Tech leaders all have very inept and awkward social skills

1:11:45 Tech must be required to release data for researchers to study

1:13:15 How to prepare kids for future jobs that may be replaced by AI?

1:14:45 Real life interactions are critical for a healthy childhood

1:16:30 We will always need trades, skilled labor and care workers

1:18:15 What are some near-term activities MAMA is working on?

1:20:45 States are introducing quality child safety legislation on tech

1:21:15 There is bipartisan support in congress for regulation

1:22:45 There hasn’t been one study worldwide on tech at a young age

1:24:15 We have “tech nannies” because childcare is so expensive

1:26:45 Too much time online is incredibly unhealthy

1:32:00 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Julie Scelfo

1:34:30 Thoughts on a limited TV series on the constitutional convention?

1:38:00 Favorite movies & Ken Burns doc?

1:43:30 Outlook on the primary races in Texas and Montana?

1:52:00 What if archduke Franz Ferdinand's driver took a different turn?

1:57:00 College football preview

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