3min chapter

The Macro Trading Floor cover image

It's Lonely On Disinflation Island 

The Macro Trading Floor

CHAPTER

Inflation Swaps - Is This a Sign of a Recession?

Long-term inflation expectations are at the high of 12 years in Europe and US. This is happening as central banks posture hawkish, which should reduce inflation expectations. It's one of these things that makes you think maybe the market is moving from just postponing rate cuts to thinking about something a little bit structurally changed. But if we add an oil rally to this? Certainly not something that you would like to see.

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