THINKING, FAST & SLOW (DANIEL KAHNEMAN) - Listening books
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The Role of Heuristics in Judgment
The essential keys to disciplined Bayesian reasoning can be simply summarized. Anchor your judgment of the probability of an outcome on a plausible base rate. Question the diagnosticity of your evidence. Both ideas are straightforward, but I was never taught how to implement them. They keep making the same mistake, predicting rare events from weak evidence.
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