How incumbents can survive Trump primaries

On this “TACO Trump Thursday” episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck breaks down how market pressure forced Donald Trump to abruptly back off his Greenland threats and announce a face-saving deal—one that looks suspiciously like what already existed—underscoring how easily Trump can be manipulated and how desperate he is to cement a sense of historical relevance. Even as Republicans in Congress continue to appease him, the damage to America’s relationships with Canada and Europe is already done, and Trump’s indifference to NATO and unilateral approach ensures lasting consequences well beyond any short-term retreat. The conversation then turns to the political fallout at home: the perilous midterm landscape for Democrats, a messy Minnesota Senate race, why conventional Republicans still can’t win blue-leaning states without a net-positive environment, and how figures like Bill Cassidy may have no path forward inside today’s GOP. Chuck also digs into the Democratic Party’s looming 2028 calendar fight, arguing the DNC should rethink its early-state strategy by looking hard at Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—and remembering that winning rural America, not just big cities, is the only way to build a durable majority.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss the unprecedented federal immigration enforcement crisis unfolding in his city as masked ICE and DHS agents have effectively occupied Minneapolis in what appears to be an operation designed more for political retribution than public safety. Frey explains the complex dynamics between city, state, and federal authority, noting that Minneapolis maintains a policy of not coordinating with federal immigration enforcement because police officers should focus on keeping communities safe rather than targeting immigrants. He reveals alarming constitutional violations, including non-white off-duty Minneapolis police officers being racially profiled and harassed by ICE agents and residents being stopped and asked for ID based on their accents. With Minneapolis already critically understaffed on police officers per capita, the massive imbalance between local law enforcement and ICE agents has created a tenuous situation where police are forced to respond to citizens being harassed while protesters exercise their First Amendment rights.

The crisis has been compounded by what Frey describes as a weaponized Department of Justice that can't be trusted, evidenced by his office receiving a subpoena.The mayor emphasizes that much of the federal action stems from a fraud issue that had nothing to do with illegal immigration, yet racist attacks on the Somali community followed—despite the fact that Somalis in Minneapolis came legally as refugees and most are U.S. citizens. Frey has held discussions with Governor Tim Walz about potentially deploying the Minnesota National Guard and worries about his ability to conduct a real investigation into the shooting of Renee Good by ICE. Frey contends the operation is designed to whip the public into a frenzy rather than address genuine immigration concerns.

Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions and explains a gripe he has with the baseball Hall of Fame.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction - Welcome to TACO Thursday

00:30 Trump backs off Greenland threats & announces deal after markets tank

02:30 Mark Carney’s speech to Davos resonated & he won’t back off it

04:00 Trump is an easy mark, and a frustrating mark

04:30 They’re likely copy+pasting the same deal we had, but Trump signs it

05:30 Republicans in congress know they have to appease Trump

06:30 Trump is desperate to be historically relevant & will be

07:15 Trump did terrible damage to American relationship with Canada & Europe

08:15 Trump doesn’t care if NATO survives or will abide by the treaty

10:00 Trump backing down won’t change the trajectory of how other countries act

12:30 Trump’s unilateral actions will have consequences

14:00 Feels like a time the out party wins everything, but it’s a tough path for Dems

15:15 Democrats need to be careful with candidate selection to win midterms

16:00 Michelle Tafoya announces senate bid in Minnesota

16:45 Tafoya hasn’t announced much policy, mostly just anti-woke rhetoric

18:15 The Democratic senate primary in Minnesota has been messy

20:00 Conventional conservative Republican doesn’t win in Minnesota

21:15 Republicans would need to be in a net-positive environment to win Minnesota

23:00 If Susan Collins doesn’t run, Maine is off the board for Republicans

24:00 Julia Letlow announces race, promises to be rubber stamp for Trump

25:30 GOP establishment won’t get involved in helping Bill Cassidy

26:15 Cassidy’s only path to winning seat is to run as Independent

28:30 Paul Finnebaum will struggle to run in Alabama after Trump endorsement

30:15 Twelve states applied to be first in the nation for Democrats in 2028

31:15 Iowa should be the first in the nation Dem state

32:30 Iowa has been good to the Democratic party, just not the Clintons

34:30 Just winning Des Moines isn’t enough, you have to win rural areas

36:15 Big Super PAC money can overwhelm in the bigger states

39:00 DNC should look at Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska

47:15 Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey joins the Chuck ToddCast

47:45 Structure of Minneapolis law enforcement & the mayor’s powers

49:00 What is the line between city & state, and federal vs. state/city authority?

49:45 Minneapolis officials don’t coordinate with feds on immigration

50:45 Police officers should keep community safe, not target immigrants

51:45 Would you release a proven criminal into ICE custody?

53:15 Escalation with ICE & DHS went from 0-100 in Minneapolis

54:00 OMB sent a letter threatening to cut all fed funds over DEI

55:00 DHS seems intent on political retribution, not safety or immigration

56:45 There was a real issue with fraud, & racist attacks on Somalis followed

57:30 Somalis in Minneapolis came legally as refugees, most are citizens

58:15 Fraud issue had nothing to do with illegal immigrants

59:30 Is ICE responsible for longer 911 wait times?

1:00:00 Minneapolis is very low on police officers per capita

1:00:30 There’s a massive imbalance between police officers & ICE agents

1:01:00 What are the police supposed to do if citizens are harassed by ICE?

1:02:15 Police are forced into a difficult & tenuous situation dealing with ICE

1:03:15 Do you believe the ICE operations are designed to provoke a response?

1:03:45 ICE are trying to whip the public into a frenzy

1:04:30 Is there a legal avenue for you to push back against DHS/ICE?

1:05:30 There have been unimaginable constitutional violations by ICE

1:06:30 Non-white off duty Minneapolis officers have been harassed by ICE

1:07:45 People are being racially profiled and asked for their ID

1:08:45 ICE needs to be better trained and have a moral compass

1:09:30 Police received a call from a 5 year old whose parents were taken

1:10:15 Worried that residents could take matters into their own hands?

1:11:15 Has the “No ICE on city property” policy worked?

1:12:15 There have been talks with Tim Walz over deploying MN national guard

1:13:30 What’s behind the subpoena received by the mayor’s office?

1:14:00 DOJ is being weaponized to target leaders that disagree with Trump

1:15:00 The current Department of Justice can’t be trusted

1:16:30 There’s so much value to having career civil servants over political loyalists

1:18:30 There’s been a failure to believe that Trump will do what he says he’ll do

1:19:15 Any end in sight to the ICE occupation of Minneapolis?

1:20:00 Will you be able to do a real investigation into the shooting of Renee Good?

1:22:00 Ask Chuck

1:22:45 Why are so many senators unwilling to challenge Trump on foreign policy?

1:28:15 Do political teams consult psychologists when dealing with Trump?

1:32:30 Why hasn’t Trump’s lack of student loan repayment program gotten attention?

1:35:45 Is it crazy to think that California could become a swing state?

1:39:45 Chances of Mike Johnson refusing to certify and seat a Democratic congress?

1:44:30 Baseball Hall of Fame has made itself irrelevant

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