Speaker 1
It's never happened. I mean, we had the Spanish flu, you know, 100 years ago, no one shut down anything at that time. And so it was not within, you know, my realm of ability to think that humans are going to deliberately shut down an entire economy. It just blew my mind. And so I think as COVID is unfolding, I was as surprised at anyone else. And I was trying my best to basically try to make sure that the businesses that we owned are not going to get washed away. So in general, one of the things to remember business and then I saw this with my dad when I was growing up is businesses are very fragile. I mean, if a business loses revenue for a month, something like 95% won't be around. After that, you know, so the mortality rate, it's like cutting off oxygen. You know, Bill Gates took the view very early in Microsoft that he wanted Microsoft to have enough cash. So it could run for two years with no revenue. Okay, and Microsoft built a cash reserve that matched that 99% businesses don't have any ability to do. You know, they just don't have the favorable economics. Whoever generate that kind of cash or have that kind of staying pump. So when you have something like COVID, when you're shutting down things and you're not allowing a business to get revenue, I mean, you know, airlines, hotels, restaurants, you know, these were like immediate casualties. And then what saved a lot of them was just incredible amounts of government support. But if we didn't have that support, I mean, I think the economy even today would be in the same manner. So the policy response was exceptional, really mind blowing actually. But someone like me, I'm no good at these things. I mean, I offer a view on this. A lot of people believe they call the COVID trade right. And I believe they were just plain lucky because no one knew how it's going to turn out. Right. They went out and in and they thought we timed it. It's pure flow. And I remember Monday, because I think Buffett, there's a statement from Buffett very quickly that he'll not be speaking till the AGM. So there was only two ways for Buffett to speak.