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Asif Noor – Modern Systematic Macro (S6E9)

Flirting with Models

CHAPTER

The Importance of Uncertainty in a Forecast

When it comes to forecasting and alpha forecast my experience is one of the things that's crucially important is the certainty around the forecast right. How does that uncertainty in a forecast factor into the portfolio construction process for you? Yes, and this has changed as wellCorey: When we first started building systematic strategies pre financial crisis, we had the firm beliefs that the size of this forecast was related to the conviction. So higher conviction, higher signal strength would mean that you know we had more opportunities.

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