Harnessing Base Rates for Smart Investing

This chapter emphasizes the significance of base rates in making informed investing choices, advocating for a deep analysis grounded in historical data. It critiques precise stock market forecasts and highlights the benefits of using past trends to predict future outcomes in investment strategies.

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We ask all our guests on Excess Returns one closing question: If you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we compile and discuss the most impactful answers we have received to it. We break down valuable insights on investing and financial planning from experts like Michael Mauboussin, Rick Ferri, Bob Elliott, Andy Constan, Ben Inker, Meb Faber, and more. We cover a range of crucial topics, including: Michael Mauboussin: The importance of using base rates in decision making Rick Ferri: Why simpler investment strategies often work best Bob Elliott: How true diversification goes beyond just stocks and bonds Andy Constan: Why most investors don't actually have an edge Ben Inker: Understand who's on the other side of your trades and why they should give you a return Ehren Stanhope: The importance of position sizing and risk management Adam Butler: The future may be very different than the past Meb Faber: The benefits of being a long-term "Rip Van Winkle" investor Ben Carlson and Michael Batnick: Why there's no single perfect portfolio for everyone Chris Davis: Remembering that stocks represent ownership in real businesses Mike Green and Danial Crosby: Keeping investing in perspective with what truly matters in life Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode distills years of wisdom into actionable lessons to improve your financial decision making. We hope you enjoy this highlight reel of some of our favorite guest insights!

We hope you enjoy the discussion.

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