Is the Fed Really Managing Expectations About Inflation?

Dylan, German, and Dara talk about the whopping 5.4 percent inflation rate the Consumer Price Index estimated last week, what it means, and if inflation is going to get worse. They dig into a paper out of the Federal Reserve arguing that we're thinking about inflation all wrong. And they close out with a fascinating new study on what the Great Migration meant for African Americans who moved northward.

References:

• Ben Casselman explains where prices are rising

• Why looking at “trimmed” inflation measures can be useful

• Neil Irwin from the New York Times on “shadow inflation” 

• Back when Dylan was less worried about inflation

• JW Mason explains why “America’s inflation debate is fundamentally confused”

• Jeremy Rudd, "Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)"

• Ricardo Reis’s critique of the Rudd paper; Joe Gagnon’s critique of the Rudd paper

• Rudd and Blinder on the oil explanation for the inflation in the 1970s

• This week’s white paper: Ellora Derenoncourt, "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration"

• Leah Boustan's book on the economic effects of the Great Migration on migrants and those left behind

Hosts:

Dylan Matthews (@dylanmatt), senior correspondent, Vox

German Lopez (@germanrlopez), senior correspondent, Vox

Dara Lind (@dlind), immigration reporter, ProPublica

Credits:

Sofi LaLonde, producer & engineer

Libby Nelson, editorial adviser

Amber Hall, deputy editorial director of talk podcasts

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