Probably the scariest, most dreaded term in economics is stagflation. Those who lived through the crisis in the 1970s can attest to this. In short, stagflation is defined as a period of low-to-no economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. It’s a deadly recipe that took extraordinary measures to break the last time we experienced this phenomenon, and the method used back then is still highly contested territory.

If you’ve heard the term more often in recent months, it’s because some economists are beginning to fear a resurgence of stagflation due to the policies of the Trump administration. So today we’re doing a very deep dive into the economy to discuss the differences between now and the crisis of the ‘70s and show how Trump might be singlehandedly pushing us into an entirely new and preventable stagflation crisis.

Access the Show Notes online.

Chapters

Intro: 00:01:00

The Phillips Curve: 00:03:34

Unemployment and Labor: 00:17:18

Trump's Conundrum: 00:20:05

Time to Rewind: 00:24:53

Lessons and Insights: 00:30:19

Post Show Musings: 00:42:28

Outro: 00:54:13

Resources

Investopedia: What Is Stagflation, What Causes It, and Why Is It Bad?

The New York Times: Strong Dollar vs. Weak Dollar

Office of the Historian: Oil Embargo, 1973–1974

Federal Reserve History: The Great Inflation

NBER: The Nixon Shock after Forty Years: The Import Surcharge Revisited Douglas A. Irwin Working Paper 17749

FRED: Personal Saving Rate

FRED: New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units

FRED: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Food in U.S. City Average

BIG by Matt Stoller

UNFTR Episode Resources

Housing First: Non-Negotiable #1.

The Energy Independence Myth.

Building a Civilian Labor Corps: Bracing for the AI Job Apocalypse. Non-Negotiable #2.

The Global Order of Money: How Exactly Does It Make the World Go ’Round?

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WWSD (What Would Steve Do?)

The Attention Mechanism with Andrew Mayne

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