What's the Probability of a Russian Invasion?

In this episode of 80k After Hours, Rob Wiblin interviews Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville about forecasting the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Links to learn more, highlights and full transcript.

They cover:

• Their early predictions for the war
• The performance of the Russian military
• The risk of use of nuclear weapons
• The most interesting remaining topics on Russia and Ukraine
• General lessons we can take from the war
• The evolution of the forecasting space
• What Robert and Clay were reading back in February
• Forecasters vs. subject matter experts
• Ways to get involved with the forecasting community
• Impressive past predictions
• And more

Who this episode is for:

• People interested in forecasting
• People interested in the war in Ukraine
• People who prefer to know how likely they are to die in a nuclear war

Who this episode isn’t for:

• People who’d hate it if a friend said they were 65% likely to come out for drinks
• People who’d prefer if their death from nuclear war was a total surprise

Get this episode by subscribing to our more experimental podcast on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80k After Hours’ into your podcasting app. Or read the transcript below.

Producer: Keiran Harris
Audio mastering: Ben Cordell
Transcriptions: Katy Moore