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Is AGI Realistic?
There's no reason to suppose that we won't continue to make progress in AI, and eventually reach AGI. But I don't think it'll be by adding 10 times as much text to the training set for chat GPT or going from 100 billion parameters to a trillion parameters. The universe just doesn't have enough data and the earth Doesn't have enough physical resources to build a machine big enough to achieve AGI using these simple circuit optimization techniques. We see this with computer vision systems where you know, you need millions of examples of a giraffe before it gets good at recognizing giraffes.