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Shattering Overconfidence: A Fresh Look at Investing Success with Yours Fewly

Lead-Lag Live

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The Bear Market and the Fed

I think this is going to play out in the fullness more like 1968 to 1970. I would not be surprised if the market hits new nominal highs, nominal, but after it plays here, still in a bear market. People keep forgetting that interest rates act with a lag, which is insane to me. The regional bank dynamic happened not because the Fed was hiking rates this year, since they were hiking rates last year. It happened with a delay. So nobody in this Twitter's face can possibly tell me that there isn't a potential tail event out there."

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