Analyzing Retail Sales Data and Economic Indicators

EP322 - 2024 Holiday Recap

 

Episode Summary:

In today’s episode of the Jason & Scot Show, Jason and Scot recap the 2024 holiday season, and give a preview of the upcoming NRF Big Show.

The week of January 20th, we'll be publishing our annual predictions show.

If you enjoyed the episode, help us reach more listeners by leaving a five-star review on Apple Podcasts. Thanks for tuning in!

Episode 322 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Wednesday, January 8th, 2025.

http://jasonandscot.com

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Transcript Jason   [0:23]Welcome to the Jason and Scott show this is episode number 322. Being recorded on Wednesday January 8th I'm your host Jason retail geek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo. Scot   [0:38]Hey Jason and welcome back Json is Scott showed listeners happy New Year Jason. Jason   [0:45]A happy New Year and happy holidays Scott it's it's been a while it's been it's fun to catch up. Scot   [0:50]Yeah you're kind of crummy when do you start giving people a hard time for saying Happy New Year I I was kind of a little worried because I was thinking I bet Jason draws the line at third or fourth of January and here we are on the 8th so I feel like. Jason   [1:05]I accept all all well wishes I'm totally merry Christmas happy holidays as long as you want any of those variations are totally acceptable despite the fact that I'm nominally Jewish. And I'm New Year's at least through January my lights are still up out front. Scot   [1:21]Okay good I'll I'll try to for the Valentine's show I'll make sure I don't say it that though I'll stop from there forward. Jason   [1:29]If it helps people not judge me I think my Amazon smart plug is broken so I think the holiday lights might not be on. But they're still out there it's too cold to go out and get them is the problem. Scot   [1:41]Yeah yeah you and I both went warm places for the holidays so that was good because I think we're both facing a cold spell here and I think actually here in North Carolina we may get snow whereas in Chicago you're not going to isn't that weird. Jason   [1:56]That that is super weird even if we're both getting snow I'd be a lot more worried for you than me because I feel like we're we're a lot more used to it but yeah it's even weirder that like it's not not snowing here and you guys are going to get get dumped on. Scot   [2:11]Yeah yeah we're just going to shut down and hopefully we don't lose power, the so it's been a while since we laid down a pod there's a lot we could talk about any any trip reports you you've been super busy you've done some vacationing but you grocery shopped before the break and then we definitely want to talk a little bit about holiday to kind of go through some of the tea leaves that are starting to come out on how things happened let's start let's start with a trip report anything interesting there. Jason   [2:38]Yeah so at least anyone worry I have been traveling a lot I just got a note from my my favorite vendor United that they've invited me to their secret. Highest status program for for another year and this year I'm going to cross 2 million miles with United so um. Yeah I feel like that I had mixed feelings about that like it's a a cool accomplishment slash it kind of signifies that I have a sad life. Scot   [3:05]And it's like congratulations all you do is fly would you like to fly some more. Jason   [3:10]Yes and the general answer is no um so I did do a lot of traveling last year there were a bunch of trips running right up to holiday but, but a lot of them were sort of Private Client gigs more so than, industry events and I've been on 2 weeks of vacation so I frankly can't remember where I was right before those but the Big Show of course that I don't think we talked a lot about was was grocery shop which, isn't you know focused on the food restaurant and grocery industry in October in Las Vegas and that show continues to get. Bigger and better longtime listeners of the show will know kind of I talk a lot about how. Every industry is getting wildly disrupted by digital just not all at the same pace so some of the you know first categories to get disrupted. Digital where things like like Borders bookstore and Blockbuster video and then Circuit City and Toys R Us and the gap. Jason   [4:08]And that at the moment it's the Auto industry in the grocery industry that are getting most disrupted by digital so I feel like grocery shops are particularly interesting show because, in many ways that's where all the, the rapid Evolution and action is in the in the digital space so it was a a good vibrant show and. 1 of the things I'll I'll give props to the show organizers for is you know they always get good Keynotes they always get big names on stage but they share more so than many years in the past I felt like. A lot of the Keynotes had like actual interesting. Information and insights in them it was less like sort of CEOs giving the the prepared PR. Can speech and more talking candidly about what was working and what wasn't working and and you know what the priorities were going to be and what was being deemphasized in the future so I I would just say overall again it was back in October and we're in January now so. Don't press me for for a ton of specifics but I walked away. Feeling like there are a lot of useful takeaways and of course like all the all the networking and hallway conversations were were super helpful as well. Scot   [5:21]Cool were you leader of any sessions. Jason   [5:25]I was as per all of these events I'm I'm wildly Overexposed and so I I both presented a session I also moderated panel. The like I probably can't even remember exactly who was on my panel so. Scot   [5:45]It's been a long time you've got you've got vacation fog we'll give you a. Jason   [5:47]I do I do I'm gonna call it vacation fog and hope it's not dementia but yeah. Scot   [5:53]Yeah and then on the holiday recap we kind of have to wait that first week of February last I looked is when Amazon's going to announce and then right after that I think you got some Walmart and some of the other folks Target and whatnot kind of put out their data so we won't really know what happened until we get some of that but several of the folks that do pontificate have some data out did you see any data that was interesting that you want to run through I I I saw some of the Adobe stuff I was going to just run through. Jason   [6:21]Yeah well so maybe I'll just wait the groundwork a little bit like so again there's. In general we see 2 kinds of data like there's people that talk about what happened in retail which is all all of retail so it's brick and mortar mixed with eCommerce and then there's people that just talk about digital so I know you're going to jump into the Adobe 1 which is, exclusively talking about e-commerce, but of course a long time listeners of the show would know you know the history of the last 10 years is that retail tends to grow about 3 to 4% a year, and e-commerce has grown about 10 to 15% a year for each of the last years so 2024 is an interesting year we you know it's still a week or 2 before we have the final data for the the whole year, but with 11 months of data. Retailers slowed down a little bit like it's growing closer to 3% than 3 to 4% and e-commerce has slowed down it's grown about 7% this year versus the typical 10 to 15% and. Jason   [7:22]You know it could be that this is a down year it also could be the law of large numbers as e-commerce is getting you know to be a bigger and bigger part it's hard to grow as fast so it's e-commerce is still growing at more than twice the speed of retail. But that's that's a smaller Delta. Then it has historically been so that's kind of the the backdrop coming into this holiday and then this is 1 of the weirdest holiday seasons of my career. So traditionally what we always talk about is. There's an arms race to start holiday earlier that like you know retailers used to open up their stores on. Black Friday the day after Thanksgiving and they were creeping earlier in the earlier in the morning on Friday originally when I started my career they opened at 10:00 the normal opening time and then they're like wait I'm going to open at 9:00 and get people to get in the line of my store before your store and then I'm going to open at 8, and then retire starts saying hey we're actually going to open Thursday night after dinner and then oh we're going to be open all day Thursday, and fast forward 30 years hey we're going to run our big Prime day sale in the middle of October right and so, every year we talk about how holiday starts earlier and earlier and these sales start her early and earlier but here's the Dirty Little Secret. Jason   [8:39]The retailers may offer deals earlier and earlier but consumers have never spent earlier. So if we look at October sales growth it's the same every October for the last 30 years so I get it has it it's not like October has become more important over time as these sales have gotten early and earlier and so when. Amazon announced a huge sale in October and Walmart and Target quickly followed suit I actually. Kind of thought it was a nothing burger like I I didn't expect it to have a big impact and. I was wrong so October is actually been 1 of the most robust months of growth we had this whole year like it was a big spike much bigger than we had any other month. And I thought oh man that's interesting like these these sales really are having a meaningful effect this year. But then we got into November in the first 2 weeks of November were abysmal. And so you go huh we we had a bunch of big sales in October it appears people jumped on those sales uh we sold more stuff in October than ever before but we probably just pulled a bunch of demand in that would have happened in November because. Jason   [9:47]The beginning of November was awful and so then we got to Holiday the turkey 5 week and you go well what's going to happen is it going to stay soft like it has most of November but it actually bounced back and so we had this, we had this low from November 1 through November you know 26 and then, it jumped up and we had a pretty robust not not like World beating but a pretty robust turkey 5 and so then you go wow you know and by the way the turkey 5. Extended into December this year because of the the way the holiday schedule works, um and then we've all been real curious to see what would happen in December and the real answer is we don't have the December data yet we have a couple data points so. Jason   [10:30]Market MasterCard spending pulse. Is 1 of the companies that publishes an estimate of total retail sales and they published an estimate of November 1st through December 24th so not catching the last minute holiday shoppers, that said all of retail for November and December was up 3.8% so if that's true. Will take it that's that's the industry average growth that's the high side of the nrf's forecast for holiday this year and it, would kind of mean that that, December sales were pretty robust to make up for the kind of anemic November sales so so that's, the big data that I followed about overall retail and then you know we have some better more granular data on the e-commerce side and that that's where like that adobe data comes in so you want to you want to break that down for us. Scot   [11:24]Yeah it's kind of interesting as you as you talk about you know kind of pulling it in October we we always talk about the shape of the holiday right and we used to have kind of this you now as you described it it sounds like a w where the the left side of the W is like that October Spike and then you had a little decrease in early November and then the turkey 5 you come is the middle of the W and then you come back down and then we always seem to have this procrastinator kind of pop at the end I don't know about you but I I fall into that for a lot of my things I'm kind of like I get busy at work and I'm like, holy cow it's December 18th I better think about this holiday thing so you always see a little bit of a spike and some of that's driven it's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy because that's when all the best prices happen there's the you know the Garff used to call it. Turkey chicken game of chicken discount chicken do you remember that. Jason   [12:17]I do I do. Scot   [12:18]Yeah I saw he changed jobs that was you're not going to be able to do selfies with him anymore yeah Rob gar. Jason   [12:24]Going to do selfies with Rob and I, uh NFS coming up in a few days so I I hope to see them and we'll for sure take a selfie but you're right Rob Garff a long time friend of the show and I I want to say 4 or 5 time guests left Salesforce this year so a big big change he was kind of, face face of Commerce at Salesforce for a long time. Scot   [12:42]You have to give us a an inside scoop of what's going on there it reveals secrets you get from the show on our podcast, okay so on the Adobe data, you know they they they call this November and December and they're saying online came in at 8.7% year-over-year growth which to your point is kind of below that 10% where we've been going. But we're getting to a scale where it doesn't surprise me I I think ultimately the lines for retail and online just kind of merge and blend and kind of become the same thing they did say that Shoppers they called it event based they were waiting for events which were basically price drops and they were kind of I guess they don't want to say discount chicken maybe that's not as uh fancy so they called them Event Event based shopping. Jason   [13:29]Yeah and if you think about it was invented by their competitors at Salesforce so yeah. Scot   [13:34]Yeah oh true yes sorry wrong uh wrong 1 and then this I thought you I thought interesting and it basically said groceries was the fastest growing at 13% so I guess with inflation people were just gifting groceries or or did groceries are just growing fast enough now that you know that's just faster than the holiday what what's your read on that 1. Jason   [13:55]Yeah well a couple of things so like when when if adobe's right that it grew e-commerce grew 8.7% over holiday to me that's that, totally makes sense and put your point it's lower than what we would historically expect but it's actually higher than the year to date averages for e-commerce so e-commerce is growing about 7%, through the you know the whole first 11 months of the year so growing 8.7% over holiday actually means. Jason   [14:26]E-commerce was a more important factor in Holiday than brick and mortar which I I believe and think was true so that that was kind of my first takeaway from the Adobe data and and as I mentioned, you know there's some really mature categories in e-commerce I mean you know 90 something percent of all books and music is is digital now right like you know well over 50% of electronics and toys. Jason   [14:50]Our digital 50% of apparel is digital but. You know less than 8% of groceries are digital so it's still it totally makes sense that grocery e-commerce is growing faster than anything else I don't think it's gifts. Although you know people host a lot more over holidays so they do spend more on groceries than usual. But I think it's just reflecting the the fact that we had lots of busy families that were availing themselves of the convenience of grocery delivery. And you know another Factor overlaying all of this is we we've had this kind of thing that I like to call A vibe session this year that. Consumers have really curtailed their spending on non-essential purchases so when you break down the actual categories uh all year people have spent a lot more on deeply discounted goods and on food and have to have and they've spent less on want to have so you know consumer electronics it's actually been a poor year a parallel you know has been a little mixed but generally a poor year Home Improvement has been kind of a poor year. Jason   [15:58]But you know these these have to have categories like grocery have been 1 of the stars all year so if you kind of factor in that, you know people have tended to spend more on grocery just in general and the e-commerce is a you know more substantially growing part of of grocery than it's ever been before it makes sense that grocery would win the e-commerce race for holiday. Scot   [16:23]Yeah interesting. Then they said this the so groceries number 1 at 13% the number 2 category was Cosmetics at 12.2% I think the Wingo household contributed a. A pretty big piece of that, I go to Sephora a lot against my will and then they said that category hit 7.7 billion and then they pivot into discounts they made this quizzical statement where they basically said retailers discovered that for every 1% price drop demand went up 1% being forces I was like well let's look at the edge if you dropped 100% demand would go up 100% it seems like demand would actually go up more if it was 100% off anyway I didn't really understand what they were trying to say there it's it and it made it seem like it was just like new revelation I'm like wait a minute this is called. Supply demand curve and I learned it in economics anyway I must have misread it or something I didn't kind of like grow what they were trying to say there. Did you did you have a hot take on that 1. Jason   [17:24]Well just a reminder most of the people that were good at Econ economics like don't get jobs at Adobe so I I would just remind you of that but no. I'm just kidding all my friends at Adobe who are super smart um the yeah I. Of course like lower prices generally drive more sales that that certainly true it's probably not a linear scale I think they're more saying like observationally like on their data set that it happened to play out this year that that there was kind of a linear, who asked the city between price and demand but the my bigger takeaway is I think. Jason   [18:02]This was a highly promotional holiday period right and this was kind of expected I mean again overall 2024 was a soft year in retail. We we just we'd had a couple really good years after the pandemic of of really strong growth and this is going to be kind of a. You know we'll be lucky if we get to out to an average year it's probably going to be a below average year of growth and, you know there are all these extraneous factors like you know there's there's positive and negative economic indicators but the consumer confidence has been really poor they're they're only spending on Essentials they're all trading down to cheaper Goods so you know more discounted goods and value Goods, and there was a super polarizing election that you know distracted a lot of people and it was the shortest holiday season we we get on the calendar with fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than we ever than we get any other year. And so for all of those reasons retailers were desperate to sell stuff and what desperate retailers do is they discount deeper and so what we always worry about in these kind of years is that retailers will. Jason   [19:11]Go deeper discounts to kind of hit their Topline sales goals and clear out their inventory but it actually means that their margins, are going to be really poor and that's 1 of the things I really worry about this year is, I think when all the dust settles we're going to find out it was a below average to average holiday season but way below average on profitability right and that's going to have a carryover effect in 2025. Scot   [19:39]You know that's what's really matters right you know you can sell the Top Line doesn't matter it's the basically the profitability. Jason   [19:46]Bonus on the top line. Scot   [19:47]True but I have a feeling the more sophisticated people are are the kind of caught on to that trick they talked about Electronics was the deepest discount to your point of demand being kind of sluggish at with a 30% off there and then toys was number 2 at 28 toys is just a. Terrible category these days because kids don't really want toys they want to just play electric electronic games we're talking about. You can't climb baby geek anymore but you know uh. Jason   [20:15]The little geek we're going with. Scot   [20:16]Little geek retail geek Junior. You know he's into games and wants digital currencies and stuff the good old Roblox dollars and and whatnot so yeah it toys are just tough so that that 1's kind of an easy call at 28% and then they said apparel had a fair amount of discounting to 23%. So I thought that was interesting traditional Trends we've talked about for. Kind of going on a decade at this point you know this may I hope you're sitting down but a lot of people shop on their phones that was up to 55%. Another call out I thought was interesting was they they saw a buy now pay later a pretty significantly at 9.6% year-over-year and you know. It's hard to tell if that's kind of a new consumer Behavior or there's all this data that's out there that shows the consumer's kind of increasingly Under Pressure they're they're starting to get a bit of a debt thing going and. Interest rates going up have made made home buying slow down all those kinds of things are putting pressure on the consumer so, it's hard to tell the buy now pay later people would tell you know it's a whole generation likes to buy that way I'm a little skeptical that maybe it's just the you know part of the the consumer being under pressure that saw a climb there. And then they on that they said Cyber Monday was a record day for buy now pay later where it it came very close to a billion I guess 991.2 million of transactions had buy now pay later. What do you think is buy now pay later surging so is that about. Jason   [21:45]I do think it is I I do think it's it's kind of a combination of 3 things like I do think it's legitimate that that younger consumers look at debt and credit differently then then older consumers and and so I there is a legitimate thing that's hard for people our age to understand which is like even consumers that you know young consumers that have economic means to buy something. Don't like to go into like debt on their credit card and they do view these like fixed installment things where you you know buy something on 4 payments as. Jason   [22:22]Is a different kind of debt than credit cards and so I do think there's an actual consumer preference for younger consumers to, that credit vehicle so I I think that's what genuinely part of it and the buy now pay later Services continue to grow and be more ubiquitous so they're just offered, more places more retailers have them and more retailers are offering them both online and in store than ever before so, so there's more places you can use it and there's more consumers that have a preference for it that's part of it I also think, there were more distressed consumers coming into holiday so there were you know more consumers that were forced to use it and the the thing that I don't love for the economy and that scares me about these services, are some of the really inappropriate categories, that consumers are using buy now pay later for right like if you're buying a durable good and you you buy it on installments and you know that like we could argue about the economic Prudence of that but I I don't personally have a problem with that. But if you're buying a monthly consumable on installments. That's concerning right so you know you shouldn't be buying food on buy now pay later right and yet like buy now pay later is showing up and getting used at grocery stores. Jason   [23:33]The that you mentioned Cosmetics are up Cosmetics is 1 of these weird categories where there's been this bifurcation. There's some inexpensive Cosmetics that are kind of an affordable luxury and they're doing really well, the the true expensive luxury cosmetics and the whole luxury category we saw get really soft and Q4 this year and historically, luxury is the category that survives economic downturns right because you know more fluent people tend to be. To be more resilient but this time around we have this kind of it's It's a negative vibe as much as it is an economic factor and so even a fluent people are like, don't feel great about the economy I'm going to cut back on my spending and so luxury overall especially in the United States. Jason   [24:18]Got really really soft but buy now pay later got used a lot for like consumables like lipstick and things like that so that's a a little bit of a, a worry and so I I think you've got kind of and then the the third factor that I think helps buy now pay later is, people don't like pulling their credit card out of their wallet and typing it into an e-commerce site it's just a pain in the neck and economies that have digital wallets like China sell a lot more stuff online than econ then economies that don't have big digital wallet penetration, and so for some American consumers, PayPal and Shop pay our digital wallets for some American consumers Amazon pays a digital wallet but for some American consumers a firm is a digital wallet and so there is a, lower friction more convenient checkout experience that that you know I'm not saying it's the biggest part of buy now pay later but it's another incentive that some consumers have to use it so I think, the combination of those 3 things. Jason   [25:18]You know younger consumers with different attitudes about credit consumers that you know are buying stuff that they don't necessarily have the cash to pay for and consumers that like the convenience of. Of the buy now pay later checkout flow all are helping buy now pay later continue to grow for the moment and we'll have to see if that. That carries forward but it's definitely a big thing. Scot   [25:40]Interesting the other data and I know you love this is from MasterCard spending pulse and they said retail X Autos was up 3.8% and that was kind of they had a couple other things but I know that that 1 has not 100% tracked the the Commerce Department data that that is the gold standard. Jason   [25:58]Yeah yeah so it's weird it it it should be a really good data source all all of these data sources are dubious right like the only. Jason   [26:06]Economic indicators are really care about are the public retailers earning statements right because those those are like audited um and and you know. Tend to be pretty reliable although although Macy's had a glitch this this last quarter that was kind of interesting. The the retail earnings reports are are are pretty credible all of these estimates the the US Department of Commerce data I I'm deep in that data I use it all the time I find it really helpful but you know it's it's very flawed at best and then most of these other data sources are more far than that so so MasterCard data is, a big panel of credit card users right and MasterCard has a lot of users so it it should be a good data set. You know there's a lot of people that pay with cash and so the the MasterCard data set is skewed and the economists at MasterCard would say they normalize the data to reflect All American spending even though they only see a subset of American spending, but I have to say historically of all these data sources I've seen the most fluctuations in mastercard's data versus everyone else's so, they're the only ones that have put a flag down for December and they're saying it's 3.8% which again would be decent I hope the other data sources they will get next week come in and are similar but I I'm. I'm not prepared to to say I'm very confident at this point what what the December numbers are going to be. Scot   [27:33]Yeah what was the I missed the Macy's flood what was that all about. Jason   [27:36]Where like a week before they they were scheduled to do their Q3 earnings call. They acknowledged a massive fraud by an employee in their accounting department and had to delay their earnings and restate their earnings for the last several quarters. Scot   [27:53]Wow holy cow that's a that's a pretty material fraud. Jason   [27:58]Yeah yeah and yeah you never that's never a fun message to give to the market and then you know of course. Meses is in a really challenged category department stores just aren't doing well and are generally declining and so you know odds are we're there and they did you know come out with a soft earnings report, you know that there's a couple favorable things in it but the top line is is that they're shrinking. And you know that's bad news just anyway and then when you have to you know taint it by saying and we're not even sure that that that all the all the losses we've reported the last 3 quarters like aren't even the full story it's it's it's. Investors do not love that. Scot   [28:37]Yeah that's terrible all right 2 other topics I want to talk about we have NRF coming up and you're going to be attending for the Json and Scott show where do you expect him to see there. Jason   [28:49]Retail media networks and AI I think everything is going to be a retail an AI driven retail media Network. Scot   [28:56]Some combinations of the letters a r m n i looks like a uh Wheel of Fortune kind of thing. Jason   [29:03]Yes and generally I throw up in my mouth every time I hear either of those acronyms so it's kind of it'll be a super pleasant pleasant week we. Scot   [29:11]Well I can't wait to hear your show report. Jason   [29:13]Yeah I have approximately 10,000 emails in my inbox right now which are you know from someone that wants to meet at NRF that is inviting me like today. Despite the fact that my internet schedule booked up about 3 months ago. To see their new Innovative AI driven retail media Network solution to that's going to revolutionize the retail industry. That's that's the exact extent of the pitch no more detail than that. Scot   [29:40]Do people say as the chief digital Commerce retail payments officer at pubis do you have any uh are you interested in e-commerce in in retail Solutions you must get the craziest email. Jason   [29:53]Yes exactly yes whenever they do that exact pitch I know it's from you. Scot   [29:59]Yeah for those of you that see Jason make sure you give him a hard time about his title that's it he he really enjoys it it's the only thing that brighten his day and being pummeled by the AI and Retail. Jason   [30:11]It it does because every time I hear it it makes me think of Scott and and Scott Scott is just 1 of my happy places. Scot   [30:17]That's nice, 1 thing I saw in this kind of came from my you know so so I do investing here in the Research Triangle Park area in a bunch of startups and, you know AI you're going to do this but AI gen AI to be specific and you know the the change in consumer behaviors from that are really fascinating so a lot of these folks that Source deals and they're trying to you know do lead gen by emailing you constantly, no none of these companies you're not in their target but they they do send out a lot of cold emails. Scot   [30:50]None of that works anymore except LinkedIn which is kind of odd because I get so much LinkedIn stuff I can't even hardly use the messenger. But anyway and then the other thing they said is content strategies under a lot of pressure because, the amount of traffic going to these these blogs and other kind of you know content you put out there hoping to get some inbound interest is kind of falling off a cliff and you know I talked to a couple of them and dug into it and and then I started poking around back into our world of retail and e-commerce and and started to see some interesting things. Scot   [31:21]You know number 1 what you're starting to see is SEO is changing and you know search engine optimization because Google largely dominate search with like let's call it 80% share and you know it's been pretty well known how the algorithm Works they do tweaks and things and whatnot but it's generally well known with patreon and all that stuff for for decade now or decades, but what you're trying to see is enough traffic is starting to go through openai perplexity and some of these things that and it's pulling the content up a layer your site your content that you put out there may have been part of the answer but you're not getting the traffic anymore and therefore people aren't seeing the form to generate a lead or you know oh my gosh this this is a vendor that can offer me a solution to problem X on researching so so that's interesting and then I I noticed in that same Adobe report that kind of had this little little call out where, they said and this is a quote 1 of the newest factors nudging spending is AI powered shopping assistance such as chat gbt and its competitors traffic to retail sites that came from gen AI powered chat Bots, shot up 1300% 1300 percent compared with a year ago holiday season now I'm sure it was small last year so maybe it was like 5 people in this year it's like you know. Scot   [32:41]What's the math on that 1 6000 but you know just relatively that those kinds of numbers, but still I thought it was interesting that we're seeing it over in 1 part of the world and it it's definitely kind of forming over on the e-commerce side and then, a lot of it is Shoppers are now turning to that technology for gift ideas and for you know kind of what you would call the research and and maybe a little bit of finding the product but we've got this research you know what do I want to get, Jeep this guy named retailgeek he's hard to shop for certainly not a gadget because these are get 10 of everything and they're like how do you find find narrow it down and find it and then. What's the best format to buy it in so that that kind of top of the funnel it seems like a lot of consumers are using that and I thought that was pretty interesting and the quote from the Adobe dude was you have a consumer that's a very strategic and thinking a lot about their strategy around where they're buying when they're buying what's offering the best deal and then that's where they're using gen AI the assistants are helping the consumer and co-piloting that Journey so I thought that was interesting and then right before after we did our last pod but right kind of towards the end of the holiday I saw several articles but this Business Insider 1 was like a good Recaps where. Scot   [33:54]You know there's been such an explosion of stuff out there that is increasingly hard to make a decision so there was this 1 article November 4th willing to it in the show notes and it basically was this couple trying to buy a mattress and they were just or a bed frame and they literally spent like 8 to 12 hours and just gave up they just kind of felt like it had become their job and I I do think that's kind of happening it's like it's so hard to find stuff in it I had this problem where I needed 1 of these you know dumb little dongles for my second HDMI thing for my camera and this 1 died and I had a webinar in 3 hours and I do Best Buy I had 1 but it was the 1 that's far away from me so I had to like find how instacart so then I had to back into instacart tell it. Scot   [34:38]Work address and then I went to work to pick it up and like you know seems like all this stuff is out there but the you know the the consumers are just having a hard time parsing through it all so it it's going to going to be interesting to see next year I think we're going to find perplexity has some shopping features we talked a lot about chat GPT has to be working on it, Google Gemini has some really cool stuff that I've been using their deep research and and if it was shopping capable uh they also put out a paper about agents that actually kind of has a shopping agent little placeholder on it, travel agent you know so you could see them kind of turning Google shopping and Google travel into little agent things that go do stuff for you somehow or at least give you some information it's going to be really interesting to see how this changes e-commerce because the consumer, feels a pain point and they want wanted to change but I don't know what it's going to look like on the other side what what do you think about all that. Jason   [35:33]Yeah yeah well so I I I think you're right I think it's complicated because AI is both an annoyingly overhyped buzzword that I'm sick of people AI washing everything and expecting it to sound interesting. And simultaneously I do think that there's there's a ton of AI use cases which are, totally disrupting traditional business processes all across the the Commerce ecosystem and and I think that this, kind of the idea that you started to touch on this idea of AI agents and you know people not having to go shopping for stuff and find stuff and do research and just have the the robots proactively solve shopping problems for you before you know you have them. I I I'm not going to say oh that's for sure the future and and all stores are going to go away, but I think there's a very high likelihood that it becomes a meaningful part of the consumer's tool set and I think it's going to be wildly disruptive so, I don't think it's, it's there yet and I so I don't think it's economically meaningful at this point and so in this Adobe data I feel like is a little bit it's ironic like it's it's they're kind of SEO keyword stuffing when they're implying that SEO is going away. Jason   [36:51]But the, I I think it's a you know a very small number of people were using AI chat Bots last year and now 13,000 you know 1300% more which is still a very small number, but I think bigger picture we used to all discover products, at this place called the retail store on a shelf and now a huge huge percentage of Discovery happens at this thing called the search engine right and and you know 15 years ago that would have been unimaginable how important Google would be to the to the the shopping process today and increasingly I feel like that that search traffic is under threat part of it is from retailers with better databases so you do the search on Amazon or Walmart instead of on Google part of it is, then I would argue the biggest most disruptive part is on social that you're discovering new products to buy on Tik Tok instead of on Google and, you know it's still tiny but an increasing number of it is happening on these AI platforms and this is even really before the AI agents have rolled out like what happens when there's really powerful AI agents built in the series and Amazon and Gmail and they're all plugged into every email and text message we get. Jason   [38:07]You know what what's the world going to look like then you know I think this is the disruption that we're all living through right now I think it's really hard to predict, exactly how it all plays out but I think you know if you're in the space you need to be paying attention to this and you need to be contingency planning you know how you're going to be good at all these things and what you're going to do you know as these things do become meaningful because I think it's entirely possible that, AI agents are as important to Commerce in 10 years as Google is today as the store shelf was 15 years ago. Scot   [38:42]Yeah and what's it mean like to all your, all this front-end stuff when the e-commerce basically kind of was like headless Commerce but with a you know you're not putting a you're not building any front end there's just like the front door is now the. It's not even API it's like some kind of a a genetic thing that's like calling into the API and doing stuff like hey you got 1 of these uh what's your price okay I'll order 1 of those it's going to be it's going to be tricky because a lot of the things that add a lot of extra margin like check out add-ons and you know recommended products and you previously bought this all that stuff. Maybe it goes away in that world and in some extent so it's going to be I guess retailers are going to have a hard choice to decide to even want to participate in that and you know because in the early days. I remember like the Twitter's been at this like 6 times they've tried to have e-commerce and they always try to bypass the checkout and that's kind of like what perplexity is doing and you know you can imagine a bunch of retailers. Like I think it's 1-800 Flowers they get so much from all the upselling that they do that you know maybe there's certain sets of folks that just kind of opt out of that world but then if your competitor opts in what do you do it's going to be interesting to see what happens here. Jason   [39:59]Yeah no and and 1 version of that is already happened like. The when I say we used to discover stuff on the Shelf we used to put a lot of stuff you didn't know about on the Shelf next to the stuff you wanted right, and you made all these unplanned purchases you made all these impulse purchases do you know what the most profitable real estate is in a grocery store it's the cash wrap. It's the the the Widow refrigerator that has 1 can of Coca-Cola that you can buy right as you're checking out that you drink on your way home from the, the the Kroger store, or the the mints or the gum that you didn't think you wanted that you decided you you had to have while you were standing there that those impulse purchases were a huge part of retail and when. Grocery has gone a digital grocery you know what nobody's buying on digital grocery single single cans of Coke or gum. Scot   [40:51]Yeah yeah. Jason   [40:52]Right um those those impulse items like nobody's figured out what the digital version of those impulse items are right and and you're you're absolutely right when when shopping goes from implicit I have to build a list figure out where I'm going to get that list, proactively go give someone money and then get all those things, to implicit like all the stuff that I need to run my life just magically shows up in my pantry and I don't have to lift a finger or ask anyone. Jason   [41:18]Tons of opportunities I had to upsell and influencer brand selections, and you know Drive impulse purchases are going to go away and some people will see that and say doesn't matter if the future that's where I got to go and they'll embrace it and other people will say no I'm going to hang on to the old model as long as I can right and that that happened in retail too do you know who 1 of the greatest retailers is in the modern era it's Costco they're amazing do you know how much Costco loves e-commerce, they freaking hate e-commerce right like they they say on their earnings call why would I ever encourage someone to go to my website when they'll buy so much more stuff if I get them into my store right and so they're they're 1 of the biggest laggards in digital Commerce because, they're so good at brick and mortar and, like we're likely to see some of those same same kind of companies you know resist moving to AI agents or social commerce or you know what whatever things comes next but these are all the. The disruptions that are playing out right now right and it's it's super fun. Scot   [42:24]Yeah yeah well guess what Jason it's happened again. Jason   [42:29]We've wasted a perfectly good our of our listeners time. Scot   [42:33]Yeah yeah and uh I meant to mention it at the top of the show but we were going to do our predictions but 1 of us which was me did not get a chance to work on them so we're going to make this a 2-part so we're going to this is kind of the the wrap the 24 w and then we're going to do our prediction show next time when Jason gets back from NRF and he's going to have an amazing trip report with with lots of Garff gossip. Jason   [42:59]Yeah and here's the good news if you are going to interfere in New York this week I I leave Saturday I come back the following Thursday and you are a planning on on attending, any event or content at NRF, I will see you there because you talk about Overexposed I think I'm on stage like 8 times at at NRF this year so I owe so many decks that I haven't done yet. But it it's going to be fun I'm looking forward to seeing everyone I think there's going to be a lot of interesting stuff that you know it's going to be a real vibrant exhibit hall with a lot of new, new exhibitors there's an Innovation Pavilion which is always super interesting which is you know where a lot of startups go and and there is going to be a bunch of good content, it all wraps up on Tuesday I'm doing a session on the big stage on Tuesday which is kind of going to be fun it's like a point Counterpoint debate. So a good friend and way smarter colleague of mine Christine Russo and I are going to be on stage and a bunch of our our friends in the e-commerce industry have sent in video questions and Christine and I are going to debate. The the pros and cons of of each of those questions and so I'm desperate for people to go to the show attend that Tuesday session and route for me because I think, there's about 10 Christine fans for every Jason fan. Scot   [44:18]The Jason fans are small But Mighty stuff well uh they'll be allowed loud and proud. Jason   [44:22]My my wife and son are both going to root for Christine I'm just saying um so any any any help I can. Yes anyhow if I could get his appreciated but so yeah so so interest is going to be very fun but busy. And I as Scott alluded to I have already written my predictions for 2024 I do reserve the or 25 got to get better at that, I do reserve the right to update them if I learn anything new at NRF so so maybe the fact that we're doing the prediction show after NRF this year will give me a chance to to be slightly more accurate than I've been in the past which would not be a bad thing. Um but hopefully. Yeah you got some value out of this show and we've teased you with the next show in just a couple of weeks and as always if you if you did enjoy the show we'd love for you to jump on iTunes and give us that 5-star review. Scot   [45:11]Thanks everybody and until next time. Jason   [45:14]Happy Commercing!