The Fed Is a Big Part of This, I Think?

I think the market is forecasting rate cuts in the second half of the year. We have this weird recency bias, I think, where all of a sudden people think that central banks can come in and save the day. This time they're not going to be able to do that. They're going to keep rates higher for longer. The market has not internalized that. But at the same time, if you look at forecasts for earnings out next year, these high interest rates are going to work their way through the economy, through earnings. If we enter anything that even looks like a recession, all of a suddenly you get what? 10% earnings decline. That would be somewhat mild