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China and the Global Order
i completely agree with you that in some kind of invasion from the p l a in the next couple of years never seemed very likely. Now they're going to want to study both the military aspect and the financial sanctions. And if anything, i think this makes war over tian less likely in this relatively short frame for the period ahead. But shijin ping's level of political resolve on this question should not be underestimated. We are still in a danger zone, but not an imminent one. As i said, it's medium term, not near term.