2min chapter

The Macro Trading Floor cover image

A Macro Trader Playbook with Jim Leitner

The Macro Trading Floor

CHAPTER

How to Bet on the Outcome of the Election

You can take any bets and Then using options Turn it into a bet that has convexity Convexity basically in this more not mathematical sense means you have more upside than downside. We know the election is going to happen within the fall So that's the soon sometimes at 10 bucks over November Nine months from now you will know the result so let's look at options for nine months. At the money forward so at the price of where the poll which is off you trades today for nine months from now It's a 50-50 chance that it'll be higher or lower, right?

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