Don’t expect a zebra
Think with Pinker
00:00
Is Baseroll a Good Habit of Critical Thinking?
When people ignore the base rate, we say they are committing a blunder. But often it's not so clear what the correct base rate is, and hence, the correct basian prior. Sometimes our personal prior information contradicts the actual statistics. The only truly representative base rate would be people exactly like me,. namely me and an wegat a sample size of one ase, youkno?
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