GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin
Top Traders Unplugged
Forecasting Recessions and the Inverted Yield Curve
This chapter explores the challenges economists face in predicting recessions and the role of the inverted yield curve as a signal for rate cuts, not necessarily a recession indicator.
Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin
05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy
10:14 - Where is inflation heading?
16:24 - A wrong prediction?
20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?
24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?
27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?
31:32 - Challenges in the credit space
33:33 - The implications of high valuations
36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system
40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S.
44:43 - The outlook for currencies
47:03 - Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China
49:43 - How is Asia holding up?
52:08 - Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?
56:21 - The big picture view over the next decade
58:23 - Advice for new investors
59:37 - Thanks for listening
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