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Stephen Davies — What is Global Catastrophic Risk?

The Curious Task

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How Low Is the Probability of a Pandemic?

In many cases, the probability is actually not as low as we i think it is. There are various thisgos bact to th white of midelia. It may well be that we're talking about a phenomenon where human activity is making it more likely than we would want it to be. An example, this is a pandemic. We just narrowly escaped having a fourth pandemic on that scale at the end of the nineteenth century with the third great plague pandemic,. which was contained within asia and didn't get out. If it had, we would have had something like the black death again. In any one year, ther's a nort point three % probability that it will

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