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SPF's Optimum Foraging Theory
optimal foraging theory first started in the 60s and 70s all the biologists thought oh animals are obviously going to maximize expected value, expected calories. Well it turned out animals weren't doing that instead what animals were doing is minimizing the risk of starvation over the cold night or the cold winter. If he'd actually done the math on like okay let's roll FTX forward let's roll alameda research forward for a number of years what is the likelihood we go bankrupt making the kind of extreme high-risk vets that we're making? He might have just been repeating consciously repeating this you know wanting to be at the risk frontier even if if you have a chance of being ruined.