2min chapter

The Gray Area with Sean Illing cover image

ICYMI: Julia Galef

The Gray Area with Sean Illing

CHAPTER

The Importance of Political Forecasting

On the packaging of Q-tips, they say, please don't put these in your ear. And then everybody buys them. I think political forecasting is such a wonderful example here. Even if you were perfectly calibrated with that 80% prediction, still 20% of the time in that situation, you're going to end up with the outcome that seemed less likely.

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