TIP775: Why Your Valuation Metrics Might Be Lying to You w/ Kyle Grieve
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Base Rates and the Outside View
Kyle explains using base rates and the outside view to temper optimistic forecasts and improve predictions.
Kyle Grieve breaks down Michael Mauboussin’s key insights on combating noise, valuing intangible-rich businesses, using the rule of 40, leveraging checklists and algorithms, understanding base rates, and more.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00:00 - Intro
00:03:00 - How to use the BIN acronym to help you deal with forecasting error
00:14:32 - Four myths in investing (many of which I’ve fallen for)
00:26:15 - Why you must take GAAP numbers on a case-by-case basis due to handicaps of the standard
00:25:07 - How the rise in passive investing is making active investing more challenging
00:33:19 - Why GAAP losers outperform GAAP winners
00:37:14 - Why you should understand the differences between pricing and valuing a business
00:48:39 - Why using assorted multiples will help identify true undervaluations
00:45:50 - How to utilize the rule of 40 in your investing regardless of whether you invest in tech or not
00:49:16 - What to know about the base rates of a public business’s survival
00:58:00 - Why most investments will fail and how to deal with the ones that succeed
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
- Read The Consilient Observer here.
- Learn about the BIN framework here.
- Dive into the four myths here.
- Explore valuation multiples more here
- Understand total shareholder returns more here.
- Improve your views on business survival here.
- Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn.
- Related books mentioned in the podcast.
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