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The Warning Signs of a Recession
The threat of recession has been looming over us since, you know, before the start of this year. We have a high conviction on the end point that this is where we're heading, then on the timing. The stress in the financial system we see was so in March, was one of the warning signs. So as we look over the next few months, we think the still wind is fading. And at the same time, those policy-tightening transmission lags are quite long.