Recession Next Year? Or About Recession Now?

Recession became the consensus view in July. I still think that'll turn out to have been the right call. The Fed was never going to target the S&P. That's when the alarm bells go off. But what they're targeting is unemployment. They absolutely want unemployment to get to 5%. And the mechanism they use to get there is the stock market and the housing market. It's exactly right. You could see Wall Street reacting in the month of July. Equity analyst upgrades versus downgrades goes sharply negative. We just regained every single lost COVID job at the same time. So how do you take these two disparate pieces of information and process them and come up with anything resulting