How to Predict the Future of the Stock Market

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Markets are a function of human behavior. I believe that human behavior has these flash points that is normally quite reasonable. And then once in a blue moon, circumstances conspire together into an irrational fever. People buy stocks without any regard to the fundamentals because they think someone else may pay more. These are pretty rare events. And we've had three, and they have some unique characteristics in common with each other and in common with nothing else. And now we're in number four. That impresses the pants off me,. The fourth one is so similar to the other three and the outcomes from the other three so unique and interesting that I am willing to bet that this one is going to be

When it comes to fighting climate change Jeremy Grantham is optimistic about technology – but worried about timing. Known widely for his acuity in identifying bubbles, the British investor contends that the one created by our dependence on fossil fuels is about to pop. He’s on a mission to make green energy cheaper, faster and is well on his way. After a lifetime spent thinking about resources, he’s using his to power the development of green technology. The Grantham Foundation has invested into 45 early-stage green projects, such as improving the efficiency of lithium extraction.

He joined Tyler to discuss the most binding constraint on the green transition, why we need an alternative to lithium, the important message sent by Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, the marginal cost basis of green energy, the topsoil crisis in the Midwest, why estimates of the cost of global warming vastly underestimate its effects, why he distrusts economists, the overpricing concentrated in the US stock market, the consequences of Brexit, the revolutionary tactics of Margaret Thatcher, how his grandparents shaped his worldview, why he’s optimistic about American venture capital, the secret to Boston’s success in asset management, how COVID changed his media diet, the political difficulty of passing carbon taxes, and more.

Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video.

Recorded September 1st, 2022

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