The Energy Crisis and China

If oil is here at $70 or $80 you're going to see like a 40% reduction, 30% reduction year on year in the rates of change of oil. That is deflationary on prices. Now, if oil falls further, it becomes something quite powerful just in the numbers alone. Europe is in a mess and it requires different analysis because of their now having to shift suppliers and eventually fuel sources over time. What does that mean for Europe? Well, it means that they almost certainly go into recession. The governments will probably have to stimulate demand because if not, you've got to utterly destroy demand. I don't think the ECB mines to see a two and a half percent