Nukes and Stability
We Are Not Saved
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Russian Troop Morale Is the Most Likely Outcome of the Invasion of Ukraine
Of all the issues russia has encountered in ther invasion of ukraine, the issue of russian troop morale has to be near the top. I still think that an assassination or a coup would be difficult to pull off, but i'm heardened by how low energy the invasion has been. If a leader can't rely on a conventional invasion, then that may make them more likely to go directly to neks as a way of getting what they want. Aggressive conventional war may no longer be fashionable, but this may only serve to put all of the focus on the ways in which nuclear weapons can be used to underpin aggression.
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