The Fed's Tightening of Credit Conditions Substitutes Rate Hikes

I worry a little bit about these statements that the tightening and credit conditions is going to substitute for exactly 25 or exactly 50 basis point of rate hikes. There's all this talk about substituting for rate hikes. Well, we were pricing policy rates to go above 5 and a half percent. Now we have two year yields around 4%. So do we think the tightening of credit conditions substitutes for 100 basis point lower two year treasury yield because that's what's happened in the market? If we don't then essentially what markets are pricing is the fed to fully offset or more than offset the tightening that we've had in credit conditions. And that's really an issue for the fed if they thought that