Ep. 1105: A Double Punch with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Michael Covel's Trend Following
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How to Predict Asset Returns
Rumsfeld: Risk is about unknowns. If we knew what was going to happen next week, there would be no risk involved. But there are known unknowns and there are unknown unknowns. To predict something, you need to have some kind of model; that's why people use more complicated models. Rumsfeld: My personal approach is to go to the opposite extreme and say, I'm going to use the simplest possible risk model he can.
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