How to Be Confident in Your Prediction

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It seems to me you can come across as actually really confident when you make statements like, I think there's an 85% chance that will happen. In fact, people will sometimes accuse you of being arrogant when you express uncertainty. If you say you're 87% then you're really arrogant. You can still have a fair amount of epistemic confidence in the way you've analyzed the situation.

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What are "scout" and "soldier" mindsets? How can we have productive disagreements even when one person isn't in scout mindset? Is knowing about good rationality habits sufficient to reason well? When do we naturally tend to be in scout mindset or soldier mindset? When is each mindset beneficial or harmful? Are humans "rationally irrational"? What are the two different types of confidence? What are some practical strategies for shifting our mindset in the moment from soldier to scout?

Find out more about Julia at juliagalef.com.

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