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Scout and Soldier Mindsets (with Julia Galef)
Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
How to Be Confident in Your Prediction
It seems to me you can come across as actually really confident when you make statements like, I think there's an 85% chance that will happen. In fact, people will sometimes accuse you of being arrogant when you express uncertainty. If you say you're 87% then you're really arrogant. You can still have a fair amount of epistemic confidence in the way you've analyzed the situation.
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