Fed Rate Hikes: A Quarter Point Move

A quarter point move for the Fed to a range of 4.75 to 5% and a change in the statement guidance no longer anticipating ongoing rate increases. Core PCE is expected to come in at 0.36% on the month in February decelerating down from 0.57% in in January this would correspond to a 4.7% year-on-year increase. Next week will be the release of personal income and spending based on some weakness in key components of the February retail sales data such as autos and dining and drinking establishment sales. We expect significant headwinds due to the limited supply of bank credit we maintain our view that the Fed has already reached their terminal rate policy