Wharton Moneyball cover image

10/12/2022: MLB, CFB, NFL, Poe, Dennehy & Naughton

Wharton Moneyball

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Theta Hats in a Frequent Perspective

The Bayesians of the early Bayesians were very hard subjective priors and they rolled those in in a very deep way into their simulation, if you will. So getting back to your theta hat, our theta hat in a frequent perspective for FBI might have a normal distribution with some standard error. But if you have a hard prior on on that FBI, it says that that theta hat that you're observing is highly unlikely, according to that prior, you're going to push far away from it. It's just an idea of that idea of actually exploring the uncertainty, like propagating that uncertainty for diction. And so that's a different in that case, you're

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