As an investor and ceo of angel list, you're paid to be right when other people are wrong. I basically load my head full of mental models. The more you know, the less you diversify collect mental models during decision making. A lousy way to do memory prediction is x happened in the past, therefore x will happen in the future. What you want is principles. You want mental models. If i manage one billion dollars, and i'm right ten % more often than somebody else, my decision making creates 100 million dollars worth of value on a judgment call.

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