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The Discontinuity of AI Development Processes
The way that AI systems actually get better is not just tweaking the code and then instantly it's better at a thing. And so, um, if the arguments, right, it's because of some mixture of luck or transfer to a relatively different type of training process that was never really covered by the arguments. Um, there's one that can be said in this, but overall they just don't give us in hindsight, very strong reasons to expect the level of discontinuity.