3min chapter

80,000 Hours Podcast cover image

Rob Wiblin on self-improvement and research ethics

80,000 Hours Podcast

CHAPTER

The Mystery of Predicting Odds

In the UK it's very easy to gamble on these topics and you don't even pay tax on on the wings. I could earn a six percent return betting on Biden to win the election this is in like early to mid-December and I could have bet up to 1.7 million pounds earning a 6 percent return on on Biden winning. So they're not small markets and I mean I think there are caps for individuals but they're very large they're hundreds of thousands of pounds so they're They're the mystery I think is substantially greater than that because say in the UK it was about 10 minutes to set up an account and don't gambling.

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