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The Selection Effect of Systems
It seems almost like kind of trivially the case that in the long run, we should expect systems with long run goals to do best and be selected for. And so as long as there's any such systems, then they might eventually proliferate. But it's not clear how strong that selection effect is relative to other effects going on. I think it's sort of easy to notice an effect and be like, oh, that's what will happen and forget to do the step of like,Oh, but what else will affect this thing? Is this going to be the main deciding factor in like this other parameter?