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Surveillance: US Jobs Report with Walsh

Bloomberg Surveillance

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Is the Labor Market in a Recession?

The labor market is one of the later stages that you see it. The other thing I would just note is historically when you have payroll peaks before prior recessions, for calling about 12 months, you have this kind of linear deceleration in payrolls. And then at some point, payroll is just kind of dropped in a nonlinear fashion. That tends to happen in every recession. Although we're very encouraged by the fact that payrolls are very strong, I think the historical lessons that you take is that doesn't mean that there can't be a non Linear drop off in the future. But again, I think you have to be cautious.

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