Transition Scenarios and Exile Trades

Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "analytical trap" is to dismiss the protests as just another 2009. But with oil sub-$50, no off-ramps, and a regime showing actual cracks, the question isn’t if things change - it’s whether the IRGC is ready to trade an 87-year-old Supreme Leader for a seat at the table.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:57) - Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests

(02:49) - US-Iran Relations and Potential Outcomes

(11:57) - Historical Analogies and Regime Change

(17:21) - Greenland's Strategic Importance

(24:37) - US-Denmark Relations and Sovereignty Issues

(34:49) - Denmark's Historical Significance and WWII Heroics

(35:36) - The Stupidity of Invading Greenland

(35:54) - Republican Senators' Opposition

(37:44) - Senator Kennedy's Southern Charm

(40:34) - Trump's 19th Century Worldview

(41:31) - The Importance of NATO and Denmark's Role

(41:58) - Greenland's Resources and American Interests

(42:37) - Europe's Response to Trump's Greenland Obsession

(49:37) - Geopolitical Realities and American Ignorance

(01:01:34) - The Complexity of Geopolitical Analysis

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Referenced in the Show:

Greenland Breakdown - https://jashap.substack.com/p/greenland

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro