Analyzing the California Parole System Using Machine Learning

We’re on the cusp of another election season. As people across the country educate themselves on the issues and candidates on this year’s ballot, one question they will have to ask themselves is, how do I tell fact from fiction? In early 2022, my guest Johan Ugander shared his research to better understand the ways information spreads online. We’re re-running this episode today, and I hope you’ll take the time to hear a few of the strategies he recommends for preventing the spread of misinformation.

Chapter Time Stamps:

(00:00:45) Exploring the Spread of Information with Johan Ugander

Johan Ugander joins Russ Altman to discuss the intriguing dynamics behind the spread of information, drawing parallels to viral infections and shedding light on the battle between true and false news.

(00:01:14) Matching Methods and Treatment Control Analysis

Discover how matching methods and treatment control analysis play a crucial role in understanding the differences between true and false news, helping us unravel the complexities of information dissemination.

(00:02:22) The Tree Analogy: True News vs. False News

Exploring the tree analogy to understand how the spread of false news resembles that of true news, raisins intriguing questions about their results.

(00:04:14) The Battle on One Front: False News Infectiousness

Dive into the heart of the debate surrounding false news, as Johan uncovers a startling finding - false news not only spreads more but also exhibits higher infectiousness, challenging the notion of battling on multiple fronts.

(00:05:34) Epidemiological Metaphors and the Spread of Information

Johan elucidates the long-standing connection between epidemiological metaphors and information spread, revealing the fascinating interplay between social psychology and cognition in the dissemination process.

(00:08:34) Information Spreading vs Viral Infections

Distinctions between information spread and viral infections, as Johan highlights the critical role of decision-making and cognition in the former, in contrast to the particle-based interactions in the latter.

(00:10:22) The Common Basic Toolkit of Spread Processes

Discover the underlying commonalities between information spread and viral infections, as Johan emphasizes the presence of a shared basic toolkit while acknowledging the specific inquiry methods unique to each domain.

(00:12:40) Lessons for Stopping the Spread of False News

Uncover valuable insights on combatting the spread of false news, as Johan explores the power of drawing attention to accuracy, introducing frictions in information sharing, and leveraging product changes for differential control.

(00:14:25) Drawing Attention to Accuracy and Decision Consequences

Explore the psychology behind information spread and decision-making, as Johan highlights how drawing attention to content accuracy can differentially limit the propagation of false information, exemplified by Twitter's retweet validation feature.

(00:16:12) Adding Friction to Information Sharing

Learn about the significance of adding frictions to information sharing, exemplified by Twitter's prompt to prompt users to reconsider retweeting unread content, and its impact in curbing the spread of false information.

(00:18:30) The Value of Computational Auditing in Parole Systems

Shift gears as the discussion transitions to the world of parole systems, where Johan and Russ delve into the significance of computational auditing in shedding light on inconsistencies and arbitrariness within the California parole system.

(00:21:40) Analyzing Parole Grant Rates Across Commissioners

Explore the disparities in parole grant rates across different commissioners, as Johan explains the computational techniques employed to evaluate the system's fairness by shuffling commissioner assignments and examining deviations from expected outcomes.

(00:23:15) Unveiling Inconsistencies and Arbitrariness

Dive into the discoveries made through computational auditing, as Johan reveals the presence of inconsistencies and arbitrariness in the parole system, raising important questions about its fairness and potential avenues for improvement.

(00:25:16) Conclusion and Future Impact of Computational Audit

Reflect on the transformative potential of computational auditing in parole systems, as Johan and Russ discuss the broader implications of their work, including increased transparency, societal impact, and collaboration with criminal justice reform groups.

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