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Slate Money: Should You Care About the Dot Plot?

Slate Technology

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What Is the Utility of Forward Guidance?

I think there is a lot of consensus about the coming year, right? If you look at the dots for year end 2023, they're very closely clustered. And so we do have on the FOMC a very clear consensus about where interest rates are going over the next 12 months. But there is much less consensus and certainty over the two years following that. It was clear what the utility of forward guidance was in the, say, 2010-2011 range. That's when Ben Bernanke wanted to persuade markets that rates were going to be low for a long time.

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