The New New Thing, Raging Bull Markets

Bull markets are examples of mass hysteria at the extreme, thinking and thus behavior become unmoored from reality. Many investors went straight from hopeless in late march to highly optimistic later in the year. This is a great reminder that while some themes do recur, it's a big mistake to expect history to repeat exactly optimistic rationals. The bull market of 20 20 was unprecedented in my experience in that there was essentially no first stage and very little of the second.